Desert Storm: Cardinals Open Second Half Against the Diamondbacks
The Cardinal Chronicle
Desert Storm: Cardinals Open Second Half Against the Diamondbacks
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur
The All-Star break is over.
Now comes the part of the season when the standings begin to tighten, the trade deadline starts hanging over every clubhouse, and games against the teams directly around you carry a little more weight.
The St. Louis Cardinals open the second half Friday night at Chase Field, beginning a three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
St. Louis enters the weekend at 50-45, while Arizona sits at 49-47. The two clubs are separated by just 1½ games, making this more than a routine road series coming out of the break.
These are three games against a team the Cardinals could be battling well into September.
For St. Louis, the assignment is straightforward: shake off the All-Star break, play clean baseball and create some breathing room between themselves and another National League postseason contender.
Series Information
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
Friday, July 17 — 8:40 p.m. CT
Saturday, July 18 — 3:10 p.m. CT
Sunday, July 19 — 3:10 p.m. CT
Television: Cardinals.TV and DBACKS.TV
Radio: KMOX 1120 AM and 104.1 FM
Streaming: MLB.TV for eligible out-of-market viewers
Probable Pitchers
As of publication, Major League Baseball lists the Cardinals’ starting pitcher as TBD for all three games.
Arizona has announced Merrill Kelly for Friday, Brandon Pfaadt for Saturday and Eduardo Rodriguez for Sunday.
Until the Cardinals officially announce their rotation plans, we are not going to fill in the blanks with guesswork.
Game 1 — Friday, July 17
Cardinals: TBD
Diamondbacks: RHP Merrill Kelly, 7-8, 5.38 ERA, 59 strikeouts
Kelly is a veteran who knows how to work through a lineup, but his overall numbers give the Cardinals an opportunity to get the second half started on the right foot.
The key will be preventing Kelly from settling into an early rhythm. St. Louis needs patient at-bats, traffic on the bases and pressure during the first trip through the order.
Kelly has enough experience to take advantage of an offense that comes out of the break swinging at everything. The Cardinals must make him work, force him into the strike zone and capitalize when he leaves something over the plate.
Winning the opener would immediately put St. Louis in position to control the weekend.
Game 2 — Saturday, July 18
Cardinals: TBD
Diamondbacks: RHP Brandon Pfaadt, 3-1, 4.70 ERA, 41 strikeouts
Pfaadt has shown flashes of becoming a dependable major-league starter, but he remains vulnerable when his command slips and pitches begin catching too much of the plate.
He generally attacks the strike zone, meaning the Cardinals cannot spend the afternoon waiting for walks that may never come. They must be ready to hit without expanding the zone.
This matchup could turn on how well St. Louis handles its first two opportunities with runners in scoring position. Against a pitcher such as Pfaadt, missed chances have a way of becoming expensive later in the game.
Game 3 — Sunday, July 19
Cardinals: TBD
Diamondbacks: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, 8-3, 2.29 ERA, 79 strikeouts
This is the most difficult matchup of the series.
Rodriguez enters the second half with an 8-3 record and a 2.29 ERA. The veteran left-hander changes speeds, commands the baseball and has enough experience to recognize when hitters begin guessing.
That makes Friday and Saturday especially important. The Cardinals do not want to enter Sunday needing a victory against Arizona’s best starting pitcher just to avoid losing the series.
St. Louis’ right-handed hitters will be central to the approach. Jordan Walker, Iván Herrera, Masyn Winn and Blaze Jordan cannot chase Rodriguez’s changeup below the strike zone or allow him to cruise through quick innings.
The Cardinals’ Offensive Core
The Cardinals begin the second half with an offense led by Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, J.J. Wetherholt and Iván Herrera.
Walker reached the break batting .294 with a .354 on-base percentage, a .532 slugging percentage and an .886 OPS. He also led the club with 19 home runs and 81 RBIs.
Burleson entered the series batting .273 with an .805 OPS, while Wetherholt carried a .356 on-base percentage. Herrera’s .381 on-base percentage remained one of the best marks on the team.
Those four have become the foundation of the Cardinals’ offense.
Lars Nootbaar provides another left-handed bat capable of working deep counts, while Masyn Winn brings contact ability, speed and strong defense at shortstop.
Nathan Church has taken over much of the work in center field, giving the Cardinals another left-handed option along with speed and defensive range. Blaze Jordan has been receiving opportunities at third base, while Bryan Torres, José Fermín and Nelson Velázquez provide Oliver Marmol with matchup options.
Behind the plate, Jimmy Crooks and Pedro Pagés give the Cardinals two different looks. Crooks offers a left-handed bat, while Pagés remains the stronger defensive option.
This is the group St. Louis is carrying into the second half.
Jordan Walker Must Set the Tone
Walker enters the second half as the centerpiece of the Cardinals’ offense.
He has been the club’s most productive hitter and the player most capable of changing a game with one swing. Arizona will know that, and the Diamondbacks will work carefully around him whenever the situation allows.
That makes the hitters in front of and behind Walker critically important.
Wetherholt and Herrera must continue reaching base. Burleson and Nootbaar must make opponents pay when they pitch around Walker. The Cardinals cannot allow Arizona to neutralize their best hitter simply by refusing to give him anything to drive.
Walker does not have to carry the lineup by himself, but he does need to remain the engine that keeps it moving.
A Familiar Face in the Other Dugout
The Cardinals will also see a familiar face wearing Arizona colors.
Nolan Arenado is now the Diamondbacks’ third baseman and remains capable of affecting a game with his glove or one swing of the bat.
St. Louis knows Arenado’s strengths. Arizona also knows the Cardinals understand how he can be pitched.
That familiarity works both ways.
There will naturally be attention surrounding Arenado facing his former club, but the Cardinals cannot allow the reunion to become the story of the weekend. They must pitch to the scouting report, keep runners off base ahead of him and avoid allowing him to decide a close game.
Arizona’s Dangerous Lineup
The Diamondbacks have more than Arenado.
Ketel Marte remains one of the National League’s most dangerous switch-hitters. Corbin Carroll can change a game with his speed, power and ability to take an extra base. Geraldo Perdomo brings another switch-hitting presence, while Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Max Kepler and Gabriel Moreno give Arizona additional experience throughout the lineup.
The Diamondbacks are capable of scoring without waiting for a three-run home run.
They will run, take extra bases and pressure a defense into making hurried decisions. Walks, errors and careless throws can quickly become runs at Chase Field.
The Cardinals must control the baseball and make Arizona earn everything it gets.
The Unknown Cardinals Rotation
The largest unanswered question entering the series is how the Cardinals will line up their starting pitching after the break.
Kyle Leahy, Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, Michael McGreevy and Andre Pallante remain the club’s established rotation options, but MLB had not announced which pitchers would handle the three games in Arizona as of publication.
That uncertainty does not necessarily mean the Cardinals have a problem. Teams frequently use the All-Star break to rearrange rotations, provide extra rest or position certain starters for upcoming opponents.
Still, St. Louis will need length from whoever gets the baseball.
The Cardinals begin a stretch of six games in six days, with the Arizona series followed immediately by three games against the Angels in Anaheim. A short start Friday could place stress on the bullpen for the remainder of the trip.
The Bullpen Advantage
The Cardinals’ bullpen remains one of the club’s greatest strengths.
Riley O’Brien has established himself as the closer, while JoJo Romero, Justin Bruihl, Ryne Stanek and George Soriano give Marmol several options before the ninth inning.
Luis Gastelum has joined the group and gives the Cardinals another right-handed arm capable of missing bats.
The formula is not complicated.
Get five or six competitive innings from the starter, keep the game close and hand the lead to the late-inning bullpen.
The Cardinals have enough relief depth to win close games, but the starters cannot force Marmol to begin covering innings in the fourth or fifth inning throughout the weekend.
Trade Deadline Pressure
The trade deadline is approaching, and both clubs remain in the uncomfortable middle ground between buying and selling.
Neither team is far enough behind to surrender the season. Neither has created enough separation to approach the deadline without hesitation.
A strong beginning to the second half could convince either front office to add help. A poor stretch could move the conversation in the opposite direction.
For the Cardinals, the clearest need remains additional pitching depth. They have stayed above .500, but the margin for error is thin, particularly when the rotation fails to work deep into games.
This series, followed by three games against the Angels, gives the front office another opportunity to evaluate what the club has and what it still needs.
The schedule is not waiting for anyone to make up his mind.
Keys to the Series
Start Fast After the Break
The Cardinals cannot treat Friday night like an extension of the All-Star break. Arizona will be playing at home and looking to pass St. Louis in the standings.
Get Runners on Base Ahead of Walker
Wetherholt and Herrera have been the club’s best on-base threats. Their ability to reach base gives Walker, Burleson and Nootbaar opportunities to do damage.
Make Kelly and Pfaadt Work
The Cardinals’ best chance to secure the series may come during the first two games. They must avoid quick innings and force Arizona’s right-handers to throw strikes under pressure.
Do Not Chase Rodriguez
Sunday’s matchup will require patience. Rodriguez will try to expand the zone with his changeup and breaking pitches. St. Louis must avoid helping him.
Keep Carroll Off the Bases
Carroll’s speed can create problems without the ball leaving the infield. The Cardinals cannot give him free passes or extra opportunities through defensive mistakes.
Get the Ball to O’Brien
The Cardinals are at their best when the starter and middle relief can build a bridge to Riley O’Brien. Close games are likely between two clubs separated by only 1½ games.
Do Not Let Arenado Become the Story
There will be plenty of conversation about Arenado facing his former team. The Cardinals’ job is to make sure the reunion is remembered for something other than an Arizona victory.
Series Prediction
Cardinals take two of three.
Arizona has home-field advantage and the strongest starting pitcher of the series scheduled for Sunday.
The Cardinals, however, have an offense capable of attacking Kelly and Pfaadt, along with a bullpen built to protect late leads.
That makes Friday night especially important.
Take the opener, find a way to split the remaining two games and leave Phoenix with a series victory.
Drop Friday and the road becomes considerably more difficult.
Final Thoughts
The Cardinals do not have to settle the postseason race this weekend.
They do need to show they are prepared to remain in it.
There are 67 games remaining, the trade deadline is approaching and the front office has decisions to make.
None of that changes the immediate assignment.
Win the series.
The break is over. The second half begins in the desert, and every game carries a little more weight.
The Cardinal Chronicle, in association with Gateway Sports & MiLB Today
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Photo Credit: Nolan Arenado, Arizona Diamondbacks | Field Level Media