Game Day Preview: Liberatore Draws Tough Assignment vs Reds

THE CARDINAL CHRONICLE
Game Day Preview: Liberatore Draws Tough Assignment as Cardinals Look to Clinch Series in Cincinnati
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur

The St. Louis Cardinals will have an opportunity to clinch their five-game series against the Cincinnati Reds tonight at Great American Ball Park, but they will have to beat one of the National League’s best pitchers to do it.

First pitch for Game 4 of the series is scheduled for 5:40 p.m. CT. Left-hander Matthew Liberatore will start for St. Louis against Cincinnati right-hander Chase Burns.

St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Matthew Liberatore, 5-10, 5.07 ERA, 116 strikeouts
Cincinnati Reds: RHP Chase Burns, 14-2, 2.47 ERA, 151 strikeouts

The Cardinals enter at 65-62 after a 3-0 victory Tuesday night gave them a two-games-to-one advantage in the series. Cincinnati fell to 60-66.

St. Louis also moved within three games of San Diego for the final National League Wild Card position. Arizona sits one game ahead of the Cardinals, while Philadelphia currently holds the second Wild Card.

The Cardinals have won seven of their last 10, and what began as a five-game series that presented an opportunity against a team below .500 has gone reasonably well through the first three games. St. Louis split Monday’s doubleheader before Kyle Leahy and the bullpen shut down Cincinnati on Tuesday.

Leahy earned his 10th victory, lowering his ERA to 3.24, while Riley O’Brien finished the shutout with his 32nd save.

Masyn Winn supplied most of the offense, collecting three extra-base hits for the first time in his career. He doubled twice and hit his fifth home run of the season, while José Fermín added an RBI double and Joshua Báez drove in the final run with a sacrifice fly.

Winn also made one of the defensive plays of the night, sliding to his left to take away a hit in the eighth inning.

It was a clean, efficient victory — good starting pitching, enough offense and no late-inning drama.

The Cardinals could use more of the same tonight, although Burns represents a considerably greater challenge.

The 23-year-old has emerged as a National League Cy Young Award candidate in his second Major League season. Burns is 14-2 with a 2.47 ERA over 23 starts, striking out 151 in 131 innings. Cincinnati is 17-6 when he starts.

Burns rebounded from a rare poor outing earlier this month by throwing seven scoreless innings against Miami on Friday. He allowed four singles, did not walk a batter and struck out eight in a 1-0 Cincinnati victory.

This will be his first career start against the Cardinals.

Burns combines premium velocity with the ability to miss bats throughout the strike zone, and the Cardinals cannot afford to give him easy innings. St. Louis has been better offensively during its recent stretch, but Burns is capable of taking over a game if hitters begin chasing or consistently fall behind in counts.

The Cardinals do not need to abandon their aggressiveness. They need to be selective about it.

Burns throws enough strikes that waiting endlessly for walks is unlikely to be a winning approach. When he leaves a fastball in the hitting zone, the Cardinals need to be ready. At the same time, expanding the zone against his breaking pitches will allow him to work through the lineup quickly.

St. Louis has enough power to make a mistake costly.

Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson have carried much of that responsibility throughout the season, while Báez has added another legitimate power threat since his promotion from Triple-A Memphis. JJ Wetherholt continues to set the table near the top of the order, and Winn’s performance Tuesday provided another reminder that the Cardinals are more dangerous when production comes from throughout the lineup.

Báez will continue to be one of the more closely watched hitters.

After becoming the first player in Major League history to homer three times in his debut, opposing pitchers have quickly adjusted to the rookie. He has seen fewer pitches in the middle of the plate and more attempts to get him to expand the strike zone.

That is the next stage of his development.

The three-home-run debut showed everyone what the power can become. The next several weeks will show how quickly Báez can adjust when Major League pitchers stop giving him pitches he wants to hit.

Liberatore has his own adjustment to make tonight.

The left-hander is coming off a solid performance against the Cubs at Wrigley Field, where he struck out six over 5 1/3 innings. His overall season numbers remain disappointing, but his stuff has looked better in recent outings.

The challenge has been familiar.

Liberatore needs to avoid the one inning that turns a competitive start into a short one.

His 116 strikeouts show that he can miss Major League bats. The 5.07 ERA shows that too many mistakes are still being punished.

That margin becomes even smaller at Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati has several right-handed hitters capable of doing damage against a left-hander, including Sal Stewart, Eugenio Suárez, Tyler Stephenson and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Elly De La Cruz remains dangerous from either side of the plate and can change an inning with his speed even when he does not drive the baseball.

Liberatore must work ahead and keep the Reds from building innings with walks.

The Cardinals do not need him to match Burns strikeout for strikeout. They need five or six competitive innings and a chance for the offense to stay within striking distance.

That may be enough.

Burns has been outstanding, but baseball games are not decided by comparing ERAs before the first pitch. The Cardinals have already beaten plenty of pitchers with better numbers than the one taking the mound for St. Louis.

They simply have to play better baseball for nine innings.

A victory tonight would give the Cardinals their third win in four games in Cincinnati and clinch the series before Thursday afternoon’s finale. It would also keep pressure on the teams directly ahead of them in the Wild Card standings.

A loss would leave the Cardinals needing Thursday’s finale to win the series.

That makes tonight another important game without needing to manufacture anything more dramatic.

The Cardinals are 65-62.

They are three games out of a playoff spot.

They have won seven of 10.

And they have put themselves in position to win another road series.

Now comes the hardest pitching matchup of the week.

Matthew Liberatore gets the ball.

Chase Burns will be waiting on the other side.

Beat him, and the Cardinals leave themselves one more game Thursday to make an already successful trip to Cincinnati even better.

The Cardinal Chronicle, in association with Gateway Sports & MiLB Today
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Photo Credit: Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals | MLB