Lars Nootbaar’s Value Comes With One Big Question: Time
Lars Nootbaar’s Value Comes With One Big Question: Time
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur
ST. LOUIS, MO — Lars Nootbaar’s return is about more than simply getting another outfielder back into the Cardinals’ lineup.
It may also give St. Louis one of its more interesting trade deadline questions.
Nootbaar, who opened the season on the 60-day injured list after offseason procedures on both heels, has begun working his way back through a minor league rehab assignment. The timing matters. The 2026 MLB trade deadline is set for Monday, Aug. 3, at 6 p.m. ET, giving the Cardinals a little more than two months to see what kind of player Nootbaar is after surgery — and what kind of market might develop if they decide to listen.
That is the heart of the matter.
Nootbaar’s value comes with one big question: time.
The Cardinals do not need to rush him to market. They do not need to shop him like an expiring contract. They do not need to accept a discounted return simply because his post-rehab runway may be short before the deadline. Nootbaar is making $5.25 million in 2026 and is not scheduled to become a free agent until after the 2027 season, according to Spotrac.
That changes the leverage.
For a contender, Nootbaar would not be a two-month rental. He would be an affordable, controllable, left-handed hitting outfielder with on-base skills and postseason usefulness. Those players matter in July, especially for clubs trying to improve without taking on a major long-term contract.
For the Cardinals, however, the calculation is more complicated.
If Nootbaar comes back quickly and produces in St. Louis, his value could climb in a hurry. A healthy version of Nootbaar gives the Cardinals a more complete outfield, another professional at-bat and a player capable of helping them in the middle of a postseason race. If they remain in the National League Wild Card picture, that alone has value.
But if the Cardinals decide to sell or retool at the deadline, Nootbaar becomes a different kind of asset. He is not the type of player who should be moved just to clear a roster spot. He is the type of player who should require a real return — likely young pitching, controllable upside or a prospect package that helps the organization beyond 2026.
The danger is selling the question mark instead of the player.
Right now, the question mark is health. The rehab numbers may be encouraging, but opposing front offices will want to see big-league timing, game speed, defensive movement and day-to-day durability. Heel surgery is not a paper cut. The Cardinals need to know whether Nootbaar is simply back on the field or truly back to being himself.
That is why patience may be the strongest position.
If Nootbaar gets a month of strong production before Aug. 3, the Cardinals can listen from strength. If the market treats him like a compromised player, they can keep him, let him finish the season, and revisit his value in the offseason. There is no reason to sell him for pennies on the dollar.
That is the old-school baseball answer: do not trade a good player just because somebody asks nicely.
Nootbaar still fits the Cardinals if they are trying to win. He still fits the market if another club is willing to pay properly. What the Cardinals cannot afford is to let the calendar make the decision for them.
The deadline will come fast enough.
The question is whether Nootbaar will have enough time to remind everyone what he is worth before it gets here.
Photo Credit: Japan Times
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