Liberatore Takes the Ball as Cardinals Try to Avoid Sweep
THE CARDINAL CHRONICLE
Game Day Preview: Liberatore Takes the Ball as Cardinals Try to Avoid Sweep
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur
The St. Louis Cardinals will try to avoid a three-game sweep this afternoon when they face the Toronto Blue Jays in the series finale at Rogers Centre.
First pitch is scheduled for 12:37 p.m. CT.
Left-hander Matthew Liberatore will start for St. Louis against three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer. The game will be televised on Cardinals.TV and Sportsnet and carried on KMOX and the Cardinals Radio Network.
St. Louis Cardinals: LHP Matthew Liberatore, 5-8, 5.26 ERA, 100 strikeouts
Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Max Scherzer, 1-4, 9.49 ERA, 18 strikeouts
The Cardinals enter Sunday at 54-57 after dropping the first two games of the series by scores of 3-1 and 5-1.
Toronto has already secured the series victory and has won three consecutive games. St. Louis has lost three straight and 12 of 16 since the All-Star break.
That is no longer a difficult stretch.
It is a collapse.
The Cardinals entered the second half within reach of a postseason position. They now sit four games behind Philadelphia for the final National League Wild Card, with San Diego, Miami, Pittsburgh and Washington also ahead of them.
The trade deadline arrives Monday at 5 p.m. CT.
Whatever argument the Cardinals intended to make for keeping this roster together has grown weaker with nearly every game.
Saturday should have been a day centered on Quinn Mathews making his Major League debut.
The young left-hander did his part.
Mathews allowed two runs on six hits over five innings. He walked three and struck out three while throwing 97 pitches, 63 for strikes.
It was not dominant, but it was competitive.
Mathews worked through traffic, limited the damage and gave the Cardinals an opportunity to win. He showed some of the same qualities that carried him through the Minor Leagues: composure, intelligence and the willingness to challenge hitters when an inning began to become uncomfortable.
For a pitcher making his first Major League appearance in an unfamiliar ballpark, there was plenty to build upon.
Unfortunately, the offense once again turned a respectable starting performance into another defeat.
The Cardinals collected 11 hits against Kevin Gausman and the Toronto bullpen.
They scored one run.
St. Louis went 1-for-8 with runners in scoring position and stranded 11 baserunners. Alec Burleson, Jordan Walker and Blaze Jordan each collected two hits, but the Cardinals repeatedly failed to finish innings.
Eleven hits should produce more than one run.
That is not bad luck.
That is poor situational hitting.
The Cardinals reached base often enough to apply pressure. They simply could not produce the swing, sacrifice fly, ground ball or two-out hit needed to turn those opportunities into runs.
Gausman allowed nine hits in 5⅔ innings, but St. Louis managed only one run against him.
He did not overpower the lineup.
He survived it.
There is a difference.
The Cardinals have repeatedly treated reaching base as though the job were complete. It is not. A baserunner is only an opportunity. Someone still has to drive him home.
Toronto did exactly that.
The Blue Jays scored two runs against Mathews and added three more after he left the game. Alejandro Kirk delivered a two-run single in the seventh, turning a manageable deficit into a 5-1 game.
Toronto finished with fewer hits than St. Louis but four more runs.
That tells the story.
The Blue Jays executed when opportunities appeared.
The Cardinals did not.
Now Liberatore must try to keep the season from slipping another game further away.
His previous start came Monday against the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium.
Liberatore allowed three runs on eight hits over 3⅔ innings. He surrendered runs in each of the first three innings and forced the Cardinals to turn to their bullpen before completing the fourth.
The Cubs eventually won 7-3.
That outing continued a frustrating season for Liberatore.
The talent remains obvious.
His curveball can be a legitimate swing-and-miss pitch. His fastball has enough velocity to challenge hitters, and his slider provides another weapon when he commands it properly.
The problem is that those pitches have rarely worked together for an entire start.
Liberatore will show two or three innings that suggest he is ready to turn the corner. Then one poor sequence, one walk or one elevated fastball changes the game.
The Cardinals have spent several years trying to determine exactly what they have in him.
Starter?
Reliever?
Piggyback option?
Bulk pitcher?
Temporary rotation solution?
The constant movement between roles has not helped, but Liberatore must also take responsibility for making the decision easier.
At some point, potential has to become performance.
He has reached 100 strikeouts this season, demonstrating that he can miss Major League bats. But his 5.26 ERA reflects the damage that occurs when his command disappears or hitters force him into the middle of the strike zone.
Toronto presents a difficult matchup because its lineup leans heavily right-handed.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kazuma Okamoto, George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, Luis Urías and Davis Schneider can all challenge a left-handed starter.
Liberatore must establish his fastball on both sides of the plate and avoid becoming overly dependent on his breaking ball.
If Toronto’s hitters can eliminate the fastball early in the count, they will wait for breaking pitches that remain over the plate.
The changeup may be especially important.
Liberatore needs something moving away from right-handed hitters to keep them from leaning over the plate and looking for pitches they can pull.
More than anything, he needs strike one.
Walks and deep counts have created too many difficult innings. Toronto has already shown that it will take advantage when the Cardinals provide additional baserunners.
Liberatore cannot spend the afternoon nibbling.
Attack the strike zone.
Trust the defense.
Make the Blue Jays earn their way aboard.
The Cardinals could also use some length.
Mathews completed five innings Saturday, requiring four innings from the bullpen. Friday, Kyle Leahy worked six, but the relief corps still surrendered the deciding runs late.
A six- or seven-inning performance from Liberatore would give the Cardinals their best chance to avoid the sweep while keeping the bullpen from becoming overextended before Monday’s opener against the Yankees.
The matchup against Scherzer presents an opportunity.
His name still carries enormous weight.
The 42-year-old right-hander is one of the greatest pitchers of his generation. He has won three Cy Young Awards, two World Series championships and more than 200 Major League games while recording over 3,400 strikeouts.
That history deserves respect.
It does not mean the Cardinals should treat the current version of Scherzer like the pitcher who dominated the National League a decade ago.
Scherzer enters with a 9.49 ERA.
He recently returned from the injured list after dealing with another physical setback and is still rebuilding his workload. In his return Monday at Washington, he allowed one run on four hits over 2⅔ innings.
He struck out four, but he also walked three and required 75 pitches to record eight outs.
Scherzer remains capable of missing bats, especially when he gets ahead and can use his slider. His competitiveness has not disappeared, and neither has his understanding of how to attack a hitter.
But the Cardinals should make him prove he can command the strike zone and work efficiently.
There is no reason to help him.
St. Louis must avoid chasing the slider away from right-handed hitters and below the zone against left-handers. Scherzer will try to use the Cardinals’ aggressiveness against them.
The best way to challenge him is to force him into the strike zone.
That does not mean every hitter should automatically take the first pitch.
Scherzer may attack early with fastballs to avoid the long counts that drove up his pitch total against Washington. If he throws a hittable fastball over the plate, the Cardinals should be prepared to swing.
Patience and passivity are not the same thing.
The Cardinals have too often watched hittable pitches early and then expanded the zone with two strikes.
They need a more decisive plan today.
Force Scherzer to work, but punish mistakes.
The middle of the Cardinals lineup should be capable of doing that.
Walker and Burleson each had two hits Saturday. They continue to provide the most dependable production in the lineup, but neither can drive in runners who do not reach base ahead of them.
JJ Wetherholt must create traffic at the top.
Iván Herrera needs to return to the approach that made him an All-Star.
Lars Nootbaar, Masyn Winn, Nathan Church and the bottom third of the order must help turn the lineup over.
Blaze Jordan continues to look comfortable against Major League pitching. His two hits Saturday gave the Cardinals another right-handed hitter capable of handling Scherzer’s fastball.
But individual performances mean very little when the lineup fails collectively.
The Cardinals had five players collect at least one hit Saturday.
They had three players collect two.
They still scored once.
That cannot happen again.
The offense must become more aggressive with runners in scoring position without becoming reckless. Shorten the swing. Use the middle of the field. Take the run when a ground ball or sacrifice fly is available.
Not every scoring opportunity requires a home run.
Sometimes winning baseball means accepting an RBI groundout rather than trying to hit a three-run homer with one man on base.
The Cardinals have lost too many games waiting for one large swing to solve everything.
Today’s game also carries a strange deadline atmosphere.
Scherzer is a pending free agent pitching for a Toronto team that remains below .500. He could be making his final start for the Blue Jays.
Kevin Gausman received a standing ovation Saturday because the Toronto crowd understood he could also be moved before Monday evening.
The Cardinals face similar questions.
Dustin May remains one of the most obvious trade candidates after throwing five scoreless innings against the Cubs in what may have been his final start for St. Louis.
Nootbaar has drawn interest.
Several relievers could appeal to clubs looking for bullpen help.
By the time the Cardinals take the field Monday night in New York, this roster may have changed.
That does not excuse another poor performance today.
Players do not need front-office certainty to play sound baseball.
The Cardinals still have a game to win.
Liberatore still has something to prove.
Walker, Wetherholt, Herrera, Burleson and the younger players still have an opportunity to demonstrate that the club’s future should include winning rather than merely evaluating.
The Cardinals cannot control which trade discussions are taking place behind closed doors.
They can control whether they execute with runners in scoring position.
They can control whether they throw strikes, catch the baseball and use the best available reliever when the game reaches its most important moment.
Those details have been missing too often.
The Cardinals are 54-57 because they have played like a 54-57 team.
They have received several good starting performances and wasted them.
They have built leads and surrendered them.
They have reached base and failed to score.
They have remained close enough to the Wild Card to continue discussing October without playing well enough to deserve it.
Sunday offers one more chance to stop the slide before the deadline.
Avoid the sweep.
Give Liberatore some support.
Turn 11 hits into more than one run.
Leave Toronto with something better than another explanation.
The Cardinals are running out of games in which “almost” counts for anything.
The Cardinal Chronicle, in association with Gateway Sports & MiLB Today
Preserving the Past, Promoting the Present, and Projecting the Future.
Check out The Cardinal Chronicle for more St. Louis Cardinals coverage, daily farm reports, prospect updates and old-school baseball commentary:
www.cardinalchronicle.com
Photo Credit: Matthew Liberatore, St. Louis Cardinals | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images