May’s Market Value Takes a Hit

May’s Market Value Takes a Hit

The Cardinal Chronicle
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur

Dustin May still has trade value.

That is the first thing that needs to be said before the panic button gets smashed through the table.

Starting pitching is always in demand in July. Teams chasing October need innings. They need arms. They need options. And May, even with all the inconsistency, still has the kind of stuff that will make contenders at least pick up the phone.

But after Saturday’s rough outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks, there is no serious way to argue that May’s trade value is where it was a month ago.

It is not.

May struggled badly in the Cardinals’ 5-3 loss at Chase Field, lasting five innings while allowing eight hits, five earned runs and four walks. He struck out six, but needed 98 pitches to get through those five innings. The line told the story. The command was not sharp, the efficiency was not there, and Arizona made him work almost from the beginning.

For a pitcher whose trade case was built around upside, health, and the possibility that he could turn into a difference-maker for a contender, this was not the kind of start that helps the Cardinals at the negotiating table.

May’s market probably peaked on June 15.

That night, he looked like the version of Dustin May every team dreams on. He threw a one-hit complete-game shutout against the San Diego Padres, carried dominant stuff deep into the game, gave the bullpen a night off, and reminded everyone why the Cardinals took a chance on him in the first place.

That outing changed the conversation.

Saturday changed it again.

Since that complete-game shutout, May has not been able to hold that same level. There have been physical interruptions, including back tightness and the ankle issue from the comebacker before the All-Star break. There have also been continued questions about command, efficiency and whether he can consistently give a contender the kind of length it would need in September and October.

That is where the problem begins.

May is not being evaluated only as a talented arm. He is being evaluated as a deadline acquisition. That means every scout in the building is asking a different question.

Can he help us win a playoff game?

That is a much harder question to answer today than it was after the San Diego shutout.

The raw ability is still there. May can still miss bats. He can still flash dominant stuff. He can still look, for a night, like a pitcher who could change the shape of a short series.

But the market is not built on best-case dreams alone. It is built on risk.

And May comes with risk.

He is on a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027, which means most clubs will treat him as a short-term rental. He also carries a well-known injury history, including two Tommy John surgeries and other physical setbacks that have shaped his career. Add in the uneven performance, and the Cardinals are no longer selling a frontline answer. They are selling a talented, volatile arm with upside and warning labels.

That does not mean the Cardinals cannot move him.

It means they should not expect a premium prospect package if May is the centerpiece.

There is a difference.

A month ago, after the complete-game shutout, it was easier to imagine a contender talking itself into May as more than just a rental starter. Maybe he could be a postseason weapon. Maybe the Cardinals could ask for a stronger return because the ceiling was so obvious.

Now, the conversation shifts.

May looks more like a standard rental starter with upside — the kind of pitcher a contender might add to deepen a rotation, protect innings, or take a chance on the stuff playing up in a new environment. That still has value, especially in a market where almost every buyer needs pitching.

But it is not the same as selling certainty.

The Cardinals’ leverage is also complicated by their own place in the standings. If they were buried, moving May would be simple. Cash in what you can and move on. But St. Louis is still hanging around the National League Wild Card race, which makes the decision more difficult.

Trading May might still be the right baseball move if the front office believes this season is more about building the next serious contender than chasing the final Wild Card spot. But if they move him now, they need to understand the return may not match what it could have been at his peak.

That is the hard part.

The Cardinals may have missed their best window to cash in big.

If Chaim Bloom is looking for premium minor-league talent, May alone probably does not get him there anymore. To land that kind of return, the Cardinals would likely have to discuss controllable assets — the kind of players contenders value more because they are not just two-month rentals.

That is a much bigger conversation.

Someone like Riley O’Brien, for example, would bring a very different market because he is controllable, productive, and affordable. That does not mean the Cardinals should move him. It means the return would be in a different category. Buyers pay for control. They pay for certainty. They pay for late-inning weapons they can keep.

May no longer offers much of that.

What he offers is still useful.

He offers stuff. He offers experience. He offers a chance that a contender can catch lightning in a bottle for two months. He offers the memory of what he looked like against San Diego, when he went the distance and gave the Cardinals one of their best pitching performances of the season.

But Saturday in Arizona reminded everyone of the other side of the ledger.

The command can disappear. The pitch count can climb. The innings can get messy. The health history never fully leaves the room.

That is what scouts saw.

That is what front offices will weigh.

The Cardinals can still trade Dustin May. There will still be interest because starting pitching does not sit on the shelf very long in July. But after another shaky outing, the return is probably moving closer to the middle of the market than the top.

May’s value has not vanished.

But it has taken a hit.

And with the trade deadline approaching, timing matters.

For the Cardinals, the question is no longer whether May has value. He does.

The question is whether they waited too long to get the best of it.

The Cardinal Chronicle, in association with Gateway Sports & MiLB Today
Preserving the Past, Promoting the Present, and Projecting the Future.

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Photo Credit: Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals | MLB