Series Preview: Cardinals Enter Divisional Gauntlet Against the Reds
THE CARDINAL CHRONICLE
Series Preview: Cardinals Enter Divisional Gauntlet Against the Reds
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur
The St. Louis Cardinals do not have much time to dwell on Thursday afternoon’s missed opportunity against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Cincinnati Reds arrive at Busch Stadium tonight to begin a three-game National League Central series, and the Cardinals need to turn the page quickly after losing six of their last eight games.
St. Louis enters the weekend at 52-50 and remains within striking distance of the final National League Wild Card position. The Cardinals are 1½ games behind Arizona and one-half game behind Pittsburgh, but the margin for error is beginning to shrink as the trade deadline approaches. Cincinnati is 47-54, six games behind Arizona, but the Reds have won consecutive road series against Colorado and Seattle.
This is where the divisional gauntlet begins to take shape.
Following the three games against Cincinnati, the Cardinals will remain home for two games against the Chicago Cubs. They will then face the Milwaukee Brewers and Reds again during an August schedule filled with games that could determine whether St. Louis remains in the postseason race.
The Cardinals have handled Cincinnati well this season, winning four of the first five meetings.
St. Louis split a May 23 doubleheader at Great American Ball Park before sweeping a three-game series at Busch Stadium from June 5-7. The Cardinals outscored the Reds 29-19 in those five games, although two were decided by one run. The clubs will meet again for five games in Cincinnati from Aug. 17-20, including a split doubleheader created by the May 24 rainout.
A 4-1 advantage is encouraging, but it guarantees nothing this weekend.
Cincinnati arrives playing better baseball than its record suggests. The Reds took two of three in Colorado and followed that by winning two of three in Seattle. They closed the Mariners series Wednesday with a 5-3 victory, as Sal Stewart hit a go-ahead three-run home run in the seventh inning.
The Cardinals are moving in the opposite direction.
Thursday’s 10-6 loss to Arizona dropped St. Louis to 2-6 over its last eight games. The Cardinals led 2-0 early, but Michael McGreevy allowed four runs over 6⅓ innings before the bullpen surrendered six more. Arizona collected 16 hits and scored five times in the eighth inning to put the game away.
The four-run ninth inning made the final score look more respectable, but it did not change the outcome.
For the Cardinals, the recurring problem has been an inability to play a complete game.
There have been days when the starting pitching has been good enough, but the offense has disappeared. There have been games when the lineup has created an early lead, only for the bullpen to surrender it. There have also been nights when the Cardinals have fallen behind immediately and spent the rest of the game trying to climb out of the hole.
That cannot continue against a division rival.
Friday’s opener will feature right-hander Dustin May against Cincinnati right-hander Rhett Lowder. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. CT, with the game available on Cardinals.TV, KMOV-4 and KMOX.
May enters at 5-7 with a 4.78 ERA and 95 strikeouts. Since throwing a complete-game, one-hit shutout against San Diego on June 15, he is 0-1 with a 9.92 ERA over five starts.
His most recent appearance came Saturday in Arizona, when he allowed five runs on eight hits and four walks over five innings. It was the first time in more than a month that May completed five innings, but he again struggled to control damage once traffic reached the bases.
The Cardinals need May to rediscover the pitcher they saw earlier this season.
When healthy and commanding the baseball, he can generate ground balls, miss bats and work deep into games. When his command drifts, innings become long and his pitch count climbs quickly.
May will be facing Cincinnati for the first time in his career.
Lowder enters at 3-7 with a 5.75 ERA and 61 strikeouts. The 24-year-old was moved to the bullpen after making his first 13 appearances as a starter, but he returned to the rotation following the All-Star break.
That return did not go well.
Lowder allowed eight runs on 11 hits over 2⅓ innings Saturday at Colorado. However, the Cardinals should not assume he will be an easy assignment. Lowder has thrown eight scoreless innings in two career starts against St. Louis, including three scoreless innings with five walks on June 7.
Saturday’s game will begin at 6:15 p.m. CT and match right-hander Andre Pallante against Reds right-hander Hunter Greene.
Pallante is 10-6 with a 4.02 ERA and 75 strikeouts. He has been one of the Cardinals’ more reliable starters this season, particularly when his sinker is producing early contact and keeping the ball on the ground.
Greene enters at 2-1 with a 6.06 ERA and 26 strikeouts. His season has again been interrupted, but his triple-digit fastball and power slider still make him capable of dominating a lineup when he is healthy and locating his pitches.
The Cardinals cannot allow Greene’s velocity to speed up their at-bats.
They must make him work, avoid expanding the strike zone and take advantage when he falls behind in counts. Greene has the kind of stuff that can overwhelm a lineup, but his outings can change quickly when opponents force him to throw strikes.
Sunday’s finale is scheduled for 1:15 p.m. CT, with right-hander Kyle Leahy facing Cincinnati left-hander Andrew Abbott.
Leahy is 7-4 with a 3.59 ERA and 79 strikeouts. He has become one of the most valuable pitchers on the Cardinals staff, moving between roles and providing quality innings whenever the rotation has needed him.
Abbott enters at 5-6 with a 3.89 ERA and 90 strikeouts. He may represent Cincinnati’s best opportunity to control a game this weekend. The left-hander changes speeds well, competes in the strike zone and has been the Reds’ most consistent scheduled starter in this series.
Sunday could present a challenge for a Cardinals lineup that has occasionally struggled against left-handed pitching.
The Cardinals must also find a way to contain the heart of Cincinnati’s order.
Elly De La Cruz remains one of baseball’s most disruptive players. He enters the series batting .276 with 17 home runs, 46 RBI and 16 stolen bases. His speed places pressure on a defense even when he does not drive the ball, and the Cardinals cannot afford to give him free passes.
Stewart has emerged as Cincinnati’s most productive run producer. The 22-year-old All-Star ranks fourth in the majors with 74 RBI and has driven in nine runs since the break, despite batting only .130 during that stretch. Spencer Steer also brings right-handed power and is coming off a two-home run game at Colorado.
The Reds may be under .500, but this is not a lineup the Cardinals can take lightly.
For St. Louis, the offense must create more consistent pressure.
JJ Wetherholt continues to provide energy near the top of the order. Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson remain the club’s most dangerous power threats, while Lars Nootbaar drove in three runs Thursday. Iván Herrera’s ability to reach base also remains important, particularly when the Cardinals place him ahead of the middle of the lineup.
However, isolated production is not enough.
The Cardinals need several hitters contributing during the same inning. They need to move runners, cash in scoring opportunities and avoid leaving their pitchers with no margin for error.
They also need cleaner work from the bullpen.
JoJo Romero’s absence following appendicitis has removed an important late-inning option. Riley O’Brien has endured several difficult outings, while the middle-relief group has struggled to consistently bridge the gap between the starters and the ninth inning.
Oliver Marmol may need to manage these games with greater urgency.
The Cardinals cannot continue saving their best available relievers for a lead that may never arrive. In a crowded Wild Card race, the highest-leverage moment may come in the sixth or seventh inning, not necessarily the ninth.
The trade deadline will hover over this series as well.
Cincinnati’s recent improvement may complicate its decision about whether to sell, but a poor weekend in St. Louis could push the Reds further out of contention. The Cardinals, meanwhile, remain close enough to the postseason race that every victory strengthens the argument for remaining competitive.
The front office may call this a transition year, retooling season or evaluation period.
The players in the clubhouse are still trying to win.
This weekend offers the Cardinals an opportunity to recover from a disappointing road trip and Thursday’s loss to Arizona. They have already beaten Cincinnati four times this season, and they will have the home-field advantage throughout the weekend.
Taking two of three should be the minimum expectation.
A sweep would restore momentum and allow St. Louis to gain ground before the Cubs arrive.
A series loss would deepen the concerns surrounding a team that has already allowed several winnable games to slip away since the All-Star break.
The Cardinals have reached the point where the schedule is no longer offering many harmless games.
Division opponents are coming. The trade deadline is approaching. The Wild Card standings are tightening.
It is time to start seeing red — and doing something about it.
The Cardinal Chronicle, in association with Gateway Sports & MiLB Today
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Photo Credit: Dustin May, St. Louis Cardinals | AP Photo/Kayla Wolf