Series Preview: Cardinals Head North With the Trade Deadline Closing In
THE CARDINAL CHRONICLE
Series Preview: Cardinals Head North With the Trade Deadline Closing In
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur
The St. Louis Cardinals cross the border tonight to open a three-game weekend series against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.
Friday’s opener is scheduled for 6:07 p.m. CT, followed by a 2:07 p.m. start Saturday and a 12:37 p.m. finale Sunday. All three games will be televised on Cardinals.TV and carried on the Cardinals Radio Network.
The series begins with both clubs below .500 and facing difficult questions with Monday’s 6 p.m. ET trade deadline approaching.
St. Louis enters at 54-55, three games behind Arizona and Philadelphia for the final National League Wild Card position. Toronto is 50-59 and 5½ games behind Cleveland for the final American League Wild Card.
The Cardinals remain close enough to discuss October, but they have done very little since the All-Star break to strengthen that argument.
St. Louis lost three of four to the Chicago Cubs at Busch Stadium, finishing the series with a 4-2 loss in 10 innings Thursday. The Cardinals scored only 10 runs during the four games and have lost 10 of their past 14.
Thursday’s defeat included another painful combination of missed opportunities, poor execution and questionable decision-making.
Andre Pallante allowed only two runs over 6⅓ innings, but the Cardinals could not provide enough offense. JJ Wetherholt tied the game with his 16th home run, only for Chicago to score twice in the top of the 10th on Alex Bregman’s go-ahead double and an insurance run.
Lars Nootbaar also lost track of the number of outs in the fourth inning, allowing Bregman to score from second after a routine fly ball. Nootbaar took responsibility after the game and acknowledged that Thursday could have been his final appearance at Busch Stadium if the Cardinals decide to trade him before Monday’s deadline.
The mistake was costly, but one play did not decide the series.
The Cardinals lost because Chicago consistently played better baseball.
The Cubs produced more quality at-bats, created more pressure and took advantage of nearly every additional opportunity St. Louis gave them. The Cardinals managed one dramatic walk-off victory Wednesday, but otherwise spent most of the series chasing the game.
That cannot continue in Toronto.
The Blue Jays may have a worse record, but their rotation presents three very different challenges.
Friday’s opener features Kyle Leahy against Dylan Cease.
Leahy enters at 7-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 88 strikeouts. He has quietly become one of the Cardinals’ most dependable starters, posting a 1.15 ERA over his past six outings.
His most recent start came Sunday against Cincinnati, when he struck out a career-high nine and allowed three earned runs over six innings. The Cardinals eventually lost 6-3 in 10 innings, but Leahy again gave them an opportunity to win.
He has done that throughout the season.
Leahy does not receive the attention given to the hardest throwers or highest-ranked prospects, but he attacks the strike zone, changes speeds and understands how to work through a lineup. He has gone from a flexible bullpen option to a legitimate Major League starter.
The Cardinals will need every bit of that consistency tonight because Cease may be the most difficult pitcher they have faced this season.
Cease enters at 7-5 with a 2.46 ERA and 167 strikeouts. He is coming off a complete-game one-hit shutout against Boston in which he struck out 12 and threw a career-high 120 pitches.
Cease also carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning earlier this month and has worked his way into the American League Cy Young Award race.
His record is misleading because Toronto has not consistently supported him.
The stuff is not.
Cease can overpower hitters with upper-90s velocity and one of baseball’s best breaking balls. He misses bats, creates uncomfortable swings and can dominate a game once he establishes the strike zone.
The Cardinals cannot approach him passively.
There is value in working the count, but hitters cannot allow hittable fastballs to pass simply because they are determined to see more pitches. Cease becomes even more dangerous when he gets ahead and can expand the strike zone with two strikes.
St. Louis must be ready to attack mistakes early.
The offense continues to lean heavily on Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson.
Walker enters the series batting .281 with a .342 on-base percentage, 22 home runs and 78 RBI. Burleson is batting .282 with 15 home runs, 71 RBI and an .801 OPS.
They have been the Cardinals’ most consistent run producers, but the lineup cannot continue asking two hitters to carry the entire offense.
Wetherholt has provided 16 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a .349 on-base percentage during an impressive rookie season. Iván Herrera continues to reach base at a strong rate, while Masyn Winn, Nootbaar, Nathan Church, Blaze Jordan and Bryan Torres must help create longer innings.
Against Cease, one scoring opportunity may be all the Cardinals receive.
They must cash it in.
Saturday provides the most anticipated game of the series when left-hander Quinn Mathews makes his Major League debut against veteran right-hander Kevin Gausman.
Mathews’ promotion offers some needed excitement during a disappointing stretch for the organization.
The 25-year-old struggled early at Triple-A Memphis, posting a 5.85 ERA in May. He lowered that mark to 2.05 across five June starts and was even better in July, recording a 1.04 ERA over four outings.
Mathews completed at least six innings in each of those four starts and has struck out 111 batters over 92 innings this season.
His latest outing may have finished the argument over whether he was ready. Mathews threw seven innings, allowed one run and struck out 10.
The Cardinals could no longer reasonably claim there was nothing left for him to prove at Memphis.
Manager Oliver Marmol announced Thursday that Mathews will start Saturday. The Cardinals must add him to both the 26-man and 40-man rosters before the game.
The timing is interesting.
The Cardinals insist Mathews is not immediately replacing a member of the current rotation. His addition gives the other starters an extra day of rest and prevents Dustin May from being scheduled to pitch Monday, the day of the trade deadline.
That may be coincidence.
It may also make it considerably easier to trade May without disrupting the rotation.
Either way, Mathews deserves this opportunity.
His fastball does not overwhelm hitters with elite velocity, but it plays up because of his delivery and deception. He pairs it with a changeup and breaking pitches that allow him to miss bats against hitters from both sides of the plate.
The biggest question has always been command.
When Mathews stays in the strike zone and avoids deep counts, he has the pitch mix and durability to work through a Major League lineup. When the walks increase, his pitch count can prevent him from reaching the middle innings.
Toronto will test him immediately.
Gausman enters at 4-10 with a 4.51 ERA and 123 strikeouts. The record is poor, but he remains a dangerous veteran with a fastball-splitter combination capable of controlling a game.
He also enters the weekend surrounded by trade speculation.
Toronto is expected to listen on several veteran pitchers before Monday, and Gausman has acknowledged the uncertainty while expressing a desire to remain with the Blue Jays.
That makes Saturday more than a prospect debut.
It may also be Gausman’s final start in a Toronto uniform.
Sunday’s finale matches Michael McGreevy against three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer.
McGreevy enters at 4-9 with a 3.57 ERA and 76 strikeouts.
His last start was the worst of his Major League career. The Cubs scored seven runs on eight hits against him before he could complete the second inning Tuesday.
That outing should not erase everything McGreevy accomplished before it.
He carried an ERA near 3.00 for most of the season, regularly pitched into the sixth or seventh inning and gave the Cardinals an opportunity to win despite inconsistent run support.
Sunday offers him an immediate chance to respond.
McGreevy does not have overpowering velocity, so his margin for error is smaller. He must locate his fastball, change eye levels and keep hitters from sitting on one area of the strike zone.
When his command is sharp, he can work quickly and produce weak contact.
When it is not, a lineup can string together hits in a hurry, as Chicago demonstrated.
Scherzer enters at 1-4 with a 9.49 ERA after spending much of the season dealing with injuries.
The 42-year-old recently returned from the injured list and threw 75 pitches over 2⅔ innings against Washington on his birthday. He allowed one run but struggled to work efficiently.
Scherzer is no longer the automatic seven-inning ace he was during his prime, but the Cardinals should not confuse diminished results with an easy assignment.
He still competes, understands how to change a hitter’s timing and possesses enough swing-and-miss stuff to dominate an undisciplined lineup.
The Cardinals must force him into the strike zone and avoid expanding against breaking pitches below the zone.
Toronto’s offense has been one of the reasons the club has fallen from contention.
The Blue Jays have scored 430 runs while allowing 490. Third baseman Kazuma Okamoto leads the club with 24 home runs and 68 RBI, while Ernie Clement is batting .294 with 27 doubles.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is batting .265 with a .345 on-base percentage, but his power production has fallen sharply to six home runs and a .357 slugging percentage.
Guerrero also missed Wednesday’s game with right hamstring tightness and is considered day to day entering the series.
George Springer, Daulton Varsho, Nathan Lukes and Andrés Giménez provide additional experience, while Toronto has begun creating opportunities for younger players as attention shifts toward the future.
That sounds familiar.
Both teams entered the season expecting more.
Both remain below .500.
Both are approaching a deadline that could reshape their rosters before the series is complete.
Toronto is more clearly positioned to sell, sitting 5½ games out of the final American League Wild Card with six teams ahead of it.
The Cardinals’ position is more complicated.
Three games is not an impossible deficit with two months remaining. However, St. Louis has played poorly enough since the break to make its record feel worse than it is.
The front office must decide whether the possibility of reaching the postseason outweighs the value available for May, Ryne Stanek, Nootbaar or any other player drawing interest.
Those decisions should not prevent the Cardinals from trying to win the series.
A rebuild, retool or transition does not require the players on the field to accept losing baseball.
Leahy is trying to establish himself as a long-term starter.
Mathews is beginning his Major League career.
McGreevy is trying to rebound from his worst start.
Walker, Wetherholt, Herrera, Burleson and the rest of the young core are still building toward whatever comes next.
Every game matters to their development because winning should always be part of development.
The Cardinals must leave the frustrating Cubs series behind them.
They need Leahy to keep tonight close against one of baseball’s best pitchers.
They need the offense to support Mathews rather than asking a rookie to be perfect in his debut.
They need McGreevy to respond Sunday and remind everyone why he had become one of the rotation’s most dependable pitchers.
Most importantly, they need to win a series.
The Cardinals are still within reach of the final Wild Card, but simply remaining close is not an accomplishment.
At some point, they must stop talking about opportunities and begin taking advantage of them.
Three games in Toronto.
Three fascinating pitching matchups.
One highly anticipated Major League debut.
And a trade deadline waiting on the other side of the weekend.
By Monday evening, the Cardinals may look different, how they play in Toronto could help determine just how much different.