Stewart vs Wetherholt - Is the NL Rookie of the Year Race Already Over?
The Cardinal Chronicle
Stewart vs Wetherholt - Is the NL Rookie of the Year Race Already Over?
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur
The latest National League Rookie of the Year poll shows that the race between Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt and Cincinnati Reds slugger Sal Stewart is as close as it gets.
However, the two rookies do not face equally challenging paths to the finish line.
In MLB.com’s latest poll, released Wednesday, Wetherholt and Stewart each received 144 voting points from a panel of 30 experts. Wetherholt held a slight advantage with 19 first-place votes compared with 17 for Stewart.
The voters were asked to consider not only what the rookies have already accomplished, but also how they believe the remainder of the season will unfold. In other words, this was more than a snapshot of the standings. It was also a projection.
As of this morning, the race is officially a dead heat.
Yet, Wetherholt still has significant work ahead.
Power Against Overall Value
The debate is shaping up as a classic baseball argument: Stewart’s elite offensive production versus Wetherholt’s comprehensive, all-around value.
Stewart’s case is the easier one to see.
Through Monday’s games, the Reds rookie led all National League rookies with 24 home runs, 85 RBIs and 47 extra-base hits. He strengthened his case during July by hitting seven home runs and posting a .510 slugging percentage.
Those are the numbers that jump off a television screen, fill a scoreboard and lead off a highlight show.
If Stewart reaches 30 home runs and 100 RBIs, it could be enough to tip the award in his favor. Achieving those traditional power benchmarks as a rookie would provide voters with a straightforward and compelling reason to select him.
Wetherholt’s case, however, merits a deeper examination.
He entered the week with 16 home runs, second among National League rookies, but his overall offensive production has not matched Stewart’s power or RBI totals. Wetherholt also struggled at the plate during July, finishing the month with a .675 OPS.
However, his value has never been limited to his bat.
Wetherholt ranked in the 95th percentile in baserunning run value and owned the second-highest fielding run value of any player in the major leagues. His combination of hitting, defense and baserunning made him one of only 11 position players with at least 4.0 FanGraphs WAR entering the week.
Stewart’s case can be found in the box score.
To fully appreciate Wetherholt’s case, you have to watch the game.
The Glove May Decide It
For Wetherholt to win Rookie of the Year, he may need to finish the season as the clear Gold Glove-caliber second baseman in the National League.
Perhaps he will not literally have to win the Gold Glove Award. That honor will not be decided when Rookie of the Year ballots are cast. But voters may need to view him as the league’s premier defensive player at the position.
The numbers already support that argument.
By June, Wetherholt ranked second among all major league infielders with 13 outs above average. He was tied with Kansas City shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. for the lead among infielders with a plus-12 fielding run value. His defensive performance has only strengthened since then.
The latest Rookie of the Year poll credited Wetherholt with a plus-18 fielding run value, the second-highest total among all major league players, regardless of position.
That is not simply good rookie defense.
That is elite major league defense.
Wetherholt may not always deliver the flashy play, but he routinely makes difficult plays look easy thanks to his quick first step, excellent positioning, and ability to read the ball off the bat. While these skills may not generate the same headlines as a three-run homer, they save runs and help win games.
The question is whether enough Rookie of the Year voters will give that defensive value the same weight they give Stewart’s home runs and RBIs.
The Schedule Could Favor Stewart
The remaining schedule may also give Stewart an advantage.
The Reds still have a substantial number of games remaining at Great American Ball Park, an environment that continues to favor home-run production.
Statcast’s park factors show Cincinnati’s ballpark playing well above the league average for home runs in 2026.
That gives Stewart an opportunity to continue building the part of his résumé that already separates him from Wetherholt.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have a considerable amount of divisional baseball remaining. That means Wetherholt will see a steady diet of familiar pitching staffs, including power arms and pitchers who rely on sinkers and ground balls.
That does not make it impossible for Wetherholt to finish strong, but it could make it more difficult for him to produce the offensive surge he may need to keep pace with Stewart.
Wetherholt does not necessarily have to match Stewart home run for home run.
He does, however, need to avoid another extended offensive slump.
He also needs more nights like Wednesday.
His two-run double against the Yankees broke a scoreless tie and provided the decisive hit in the Cardinals’ 3-1 victory at Yankee Stadium. Those are the moments that can help shape an award race during the final two months.
More Than an Individual Award
The Cardinals have more riding on this race than personal recognition for their rookie second baseman.
If Wetherholt wins National League Rookie of the Year, St. Louis would receive an extra draft selection through Major League Baseball’s Prospect Promotion Incentive program.
The pick would be placed immediately following the first round.
The PPI system was created to encourage organizations to place their best prospects on Opening Day rosters rather than keeping them in the minor leagues to manipulate service time. A qualifying player who earns a full year of service and wins Rookie of the Year can earn his organization an additional draft pick.
That selection would also come with its own assigned slot value, adding millions of dollars to the Cardinals’ draft bonus pool.
For perspective, the Atlanta Braves received the No. 26 overall selection in the 2026 draft after Drake Baldwin won the 2025 National League Rookie of the Year Award. That pick carried a slot value of nearly $3.6 million.
The exact value of a potential Cardinals pick would not be established until the 2027 draft order and bonus pools are finalized, but it would likely provide more than $3 million in additional spending power.
That money could help the Cardinals sign another premium prospect or allow them to spread savings across several selections during the first 10 rounds.
Wetherholt is not only trying to win an award.
He could help add another significant piece to the Cardinals’ farm system.
Is the Race Already Over?
No.
It is not even close to being over.
But Stewart may have the more straightforward path.
If he continues hitting home runs and reaches 30 homers with 100 RBIs, he will have the kind of offensive résumé that is difficult for voters to overlook.
For Wetherholt, the path is more complicated.
He must continue playing elite defense, remain an impact baserunner and rediscover enough offensive consistency to prevent Stewart from creating too much separation in the traditional statistics.
The latest poll says the race is tied.
The numbers say Stewart has the offensive momentum.
Wetherholt still has time to answer, but his margin for error is getting smaller.
The Rookie of the Year race is not over, but the easy part may be.
The Cardinal Chronicle, in association with Gateway Sports & MiLB Today
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Photo Credit: JJ Wetherholt, St. Louis Cardinals | MLB