The Arms Race: Five Young Cardinals Pitchers Building a New Pipeline
The Arms Race: Five Young Cardinals Pitchers Building a New Pipeline
The Cardinal Chronicle
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur
Yesterday, we looked at the bats.
Now it is time for the arms.
For years, one of the recurring questions surrounding the Cardinals' farm system was simple: Where is the pitching?
Not merely the next starter capable of filling a rotation spot, but real organizational depth — enough young arms that the Cardinals would not have to depend upon every prospect developing exactly according to plan.
That picture is beginning to change.
Quinn Mathews, Jacob Odle, Yhoiker Fajardo, Blake Aita and Tanner Franklin have combined for 415 2/3 innings and 531 strikeouts this season. Four have reached Double-A or higher, and Mathews has already made his major league debut.
Welcome to The Arms Race.
This isn't our ranking of the five best pitching prospects in the organization. Liam Doyle, Jurrangelo Cijntje and others obviously belong in that discussion. This is about 2026 production to date — five young starters whose performances have put them at the front of the Cardinals' season-long pitching board.
And there is something different about each one.
Quinn Mathews — Triple-A Memphis
20 GS | 95 IP | 115 K | 58 BB | 3.32 ERA | 1.21 WHIP
Mathews is the veteran of this group, if you can call a 25-year-old prospect a veteran.
The left-hander has struck out 115 hitters in 95 innings, allowing only 57 hits. That works out to roughly 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings and just 5.4 hits per nine.
The 58 walks remain impossible to ignore. Command has been the issue separating Mathews from becoming a finished major league starter, and a 5.5 BB/9 rate leaves considerable work to do.
But there is another side to those numbers.
Opponents aren't hitting him.
Mathews closed July with some of his best pitching of the season, including seven scoreless innings on July 9 and a season-high 10 strikeouts over seven innings on July 25. That run earned him his first opportunity in St. Louis, where he made his major league debut Aug. 1 against Toronto. (MLB.com)
A fourth-round pick from Stanford in 2023, Mathews has already demonstrated an ability to reinvent himself. His velocity increased after entering professional baseball, and he struck out 202 hitters while climbing four levels during his first full professional season. (MLB.com)
Now the assignment is simpler to identify, though perhaps harder to accomplish:
Throw more strikes.
The rest of the package is already knocking on the door.
Jacob Odle — High-A Peoria
17 GS | 75 IP | 110 K | 47 BB | 3.00 ERA | 1.36 WHIP
If Mathews represents proximity, Odle represents emergence.
Few Cardinals pitching prospects have changed their standing more dramatically this season.
Odle has struck out 110 hitters in only 75 innings, an eye-popping 13.2 K/9. He has surrendered only 55 hits, and his 3.00 ERA has remained strong despite a walk total that needs improvement.
This did not come completely out of nowhere, but it came pretty darn close.
The Cardinals selected Odle in the 14th round of the 2023 draft. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2024 season, delaying his development and leaving him well outside most prospect discussions entering this year.
Then the stuff jumped.
His fastball has been sitting 96-98 mph and has touched 99.5, complemented by a plus curveball and hard slider. MLB Pipeline now grades both his fastball and curveball as 60 offerings. (MLB.com)
May provided the first big warning that something had changed.
Odle struck out 34 hitters in 21 2/3 innings with a 1.25 ERA during the month, earning Pitcher of the Month recognition. Baseball America subsequently included him among the pitching prospects who stood out across the minors. (The Cardinal Nation)
The 47 walks in 75 innings tell us Odle is not ready for the majors tomorrow.
The 110 strikeouts tell us why nobody should care that he was once a 14th-round pick.
That draft round has become ancient history.
Yhoiker Fajardo — Double-A Springfield
17 GS | 81 IP | 114 K | 27 BB | 4.22 ERA | 1.36 WHIP
Here is the name where the ERA can lead you astray.
Fajardo's 4.22 mark is the highest among these five pitchers.
Look deeper.
He has 114 strikeouts against only 27 walks in 81 innings.
That is roughly 12.7 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9, easily the best strikeout-to-walk combination among this group.
And there is one more number that matters.
Nineteen.
Fajardo is doing this at 19 years old and has now reached Double-A.
The right-hander came to St. Louis along with Hunter Dobbins and Blake Aita in the December trade that sent Willson Contreras to Boston. Before his 20th birthday, Fajardo had already been traded twice and established himself as one of the more intriguing young pitchers in the Cardinals' system. (MLB.com)
His mid-80s slider is regarded as his best offering, with a fading changeup giving him another legitimate weapon. His fastball has climbed into the 93-95 mph range and has touched 96 as he has added strength. (MLB.com)
Earlier this season, Fajardo opened with a 1.46 ERA through his first six starts, including consecutive seven-strikeout outings. By late July, he was again missing bats at an extraordinary rate. (MLB.com)
This is exactly why age and level matter when discussing prospects.
There are pitchers with prettier ERAs.
There aren't many teenagers striking out hitters like this against advanced competition.
Blake Aita — Double-A Springfield
18 GS | 87.1 IP | 94 K | 32 BB | 3.71 ERA | 1.31 WHIP
Aita might be the least talked-about pitcher in this group.
That probably needs to change.
The 23-year-old right-hander has quietly provided one of the steadier starting-pitching seasons in the organization: 87 1/3 innings, 94 strikeouts, 32 walks and a 3.71 ERA.
Nothing there requires an exclamation point.
Everything there works.
Aita was the other pitching prospect included with Fajardo and Dobbins in the Contreras trade, and he has done nothing since arriving to diminish the value of that return. The Cardinals promoted him from Peoria to Double-A Springfield on July 7. (MLB.com)
His May was particularly strong. Aita posted a 2.05 ERA with 23 strikeouts against seven walks over 22 innings.
Unlike some of the higher-ceiling pitchers in the organization, Aita's appeal isn't built around one spectacular number.
It is the whole line.
He takes the baseball. He throws innings. He misses enough bats. He limits walks. And he has continued advancing.
Not every successful major league starter begins his minor league career near the top of a prospect ranking.
Sometimes the guy who keeps getting outs becomes awfully difficult to overlook.
Aita is approaching that territory.
Tanner Franklin — Double-A Springfield
20 GS | 77.1 IP | 98 K | 34 BB | 4.07 ERA | 1.27 WHIP
If you are shopping for pure electricity, Franklin may be your guy.
The 6-foot-5 right-hander has struck out 98 hitters in 77 1/3 innings, allowing only 64 hits.
The Cardinals selected Franklin 72nd overall in the 2025 draft after he pitched primarily in relief at Tennessee, then immediately began stretching him out as a starter.
There was a pretty good reason.
His fastball can reach 102 mph.
It generally works in the 94-98 range with exceptional carry, and the Cardinals have been developing a cutter, slider and changeup behind it. MLB Pipeline gives the fastball a 70 grade. (MLB.com)
Franklin announced himself quickly this spring. Through his first two starts, he struck out 16 of the 28 hitters he faced. The Cardinals have continued developing him as a starter despite the limited workload he accumulated in college. (MLB.com)
The 4.07 ERA is secondary to the larger developmental question.
Can that arsenal hold up over a starter's workload?
So far, Franklin has answered well enough to reach Double-A during his first full professional season.
There is considerable reliever risk here. A fastball like this could eventually make Franklin a late-inning weapon even if starting does not work.
But you don't move a pitcher with this kind of arm to the bullpen until he gives you a reason.
For now, keep handing him the baseball every fifth day.
More Than Five Arms
The encouraging part isn't simply these five pitchers.
The Cardinals still have Liam Doyle, Jurrangelo Cijntje, Mason Molina, Cooper Hjerpe, Cade Crossland, Braden Davis and others scattered throughout the system. Brandon Clarke is working his way back. The organization added Tegan Kuhns with the No. 32 pick in this summer's draft.
Not all of them will make it.
That is baseball.
Pitching prospects get hurt. Command disappears. Velocity changes. Starters become relievers. Top prospects stall while somebody barely mentioned in March suddenly looks like a major leaguer in August.
That is precisely why depth matters.
For too long, the Cardinals seemed to need nearly every pitching-development decision to work because there weren't enough alternatives behind it.
Now they are beginning to accumulate options.
The Takeaway
Mathews is closest.
Odle may be the breakout.
Fajardo may have the most remarkable age-to-level performance.
Aita may be the overlooked one.
Franklin may possess the loudest raw arm.
Five pitchers. Five different development paths.
And 531 strikeouts in 415 2/3 innings between them.
The Cardinals haven't won the arms race yet. That will be determined years from now, when we see which of these pitchers can consistently get major league hitters out.
But for the first time in quite a while, they have enough young arms to actually have a race.
That's a pretty good place to start.
The Cardinal Chronicle, in association with Gateway Sports & MiLB Today
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Photo Credit: Blake Aita, Springfield Cardinals| MLB