Trade Deadline Morning Report: May, Herrera, Nootbaar, & Burleson

The Cardinal Chronicle
Trade Deadline Morning Report: May, Herrera, Nootbaar, Crooks, & Stanek
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur

The Cardinals’ deadline picture is getting clearer by the hour, and the starting pitching market has finally started to move.

That matters for St. Louis.

It matters because Dustin May still looks like the cleanest and most likely Cardinals trade chip before Monday’s deadline. It matters because the teams needing rotation help are running out of impact options. And it matters because once the first major starter came off the board, the rest of the pitching market was always going to start tightening quickly.

Now it has.

Tarik Skubal is reportedly headed to the Dodgers, which removes the biggest name from the board. That is the kind of move that changes the entire deadline room. One club gets its ace. The other clubs that were dreaming big have to pivot. The price for high-end pitching gets reset. The urgency for everyone else goes up.

That is where May becomes more interesting.

Freddy Peralta being scratched from his scheduled start only adds to it. The Mets did not pull him because someone casually asked about him. They pulled him because talks reached a level where sending him to the mound no longer made sense.

That is usually when the market is no longer just talking.

It is moving.

For the Cardinals, this is the window Chaim Bloom has been waiting on.

May is not Skubal. He is not Peralta at his best. He is not a frontline ace who should bring back a franchise-shaking return.

But he is a legitimate major league starter, he has swing-and-miss stuff, he has postseason-caliber upside when right, and he is available in a market where the number of buyers is greater than the number of arms.

That is how deadline value gets created.

May’s final appearance as a Cardinal may have been the perfect showcase. Five scoreless innings against the Cubs. One hit. Two walks. Three strikeouts. No damage.

It was not a complete-game masterpiece, but it did exactly what the Cardinals needed it to do. It reminded contenders that the stuff still plays, the arm still has real upside, and the right-hander could help stabilize the middle or back end of a postseason rotation.

He is also not scheduled to pitch again before the deadline.

That matters.

There is no more injury risk from another outing. No chance for one bad start to knock down the return. No awkward debate about whether to push him back or scratch him. The showcase is over. Now it is about whether the Cardinals can turn that outing into the right package.

The Rays remain one of the more interesting teams to watch.

Shane McClanahan landing on the injured list only increases Tampa Bay’s need to explore pitching. The Rays were already connected to the starter market, and with Skubal now off the board, the pressure shifts toward the next tier.

If Tampa Bay misses on Peralta, May makes sense.

That does not mean a deal is likely. The Rays are not an easy team to trade with, and they are not going to panic just because the market is moving. But Bloom’s history in Tampa Bay gives the Cardinals an interesting angle. He knows the system. He knows how the Rays think. He knows which prospects matter, which ones may be blocked, and which ones could fit the Cardinals’ next window.

That does not guarantee a deal.

But it does make the Rays a serious club to monitor.

The Phillies, Braves, Cubs, Brewers, Diamondbacks and others have also been tied to the starting pitching market in some form. Not every team will land Peralta. Not every team can afford a bigger name. That is where May could become the pivot arm.

The first domino has already fallen.

The next one may decide May’s market.

If Peralta moves quickly, the teams that missed will have a choice. They can keep chasing the next best starter, or they can wait and risk getting boxed out entirely. That is the pressure point the Cardinals need to use.

Do not give May away.

Do not get greedy to the point of missing the market.

But do not treat him like a throwaway rental either.

The Cardinals signed May knowing this was a possible outcome. He gave them innings. He gave them several strong starts. He gave them trade value. Now the job is to turn that short-term signing into future pitching, upper-level talent or a real prospect piece that helps the organization beyond 2026.

That is the easy part of this deadline.

May should be moved.

The harder questions involve Iván Herrera, Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson.

Herrera remains the most complicated name on the board.

Catching is scarce. Catching with offensive value is even harder to find. Herrera is controlled, productive, and capable of helping a contender in multiple ways. He can catch some. He can DH. He can get on base. He gives a team more than a short-term rental.

That is exactly why the Cardinals should not force it.

There is a difference between listening and shopping. The Cardinals should absolutely listen on Herrera. The Yankees and Red Sox make sense. The Rays make sense. Other teams needing offense behind the plate or at DH should at least check in.

But Herrera should not be moved for a “nice” package.

He should only be moved if the return is uncomfortable for the other team.

A top pitching prospect. A near-ready arm. A premium position-player prospect. Something that clearly answers a future need.

Otherwise, keep the bat.

The Cardinals do have catching depth. Pedro Pagés is already in St. Louis. Jimmy Crooks is in the picture. Leo Bernal and Rainiel Rodríguez give the system more long-term options. That depth allows Bloom to listen, but it does not require him to sell Herrera just because another club needs catching.

If the catching market gets hot, the more likely move may still be someone like Crooks or Pagés.

Trading Crooks would be a way to cash in on the depth without moving the best offensive catcher in the organization. Trading Pagés would be more of a major league depth move for a team that values defense and game-calling. Trading Herrera is a bigger bet altogether.

That is why Herrera belongs in the “make me do it” category.

Nootbaar is different.

He is not a rental, but he is also not under long-term control forever. That puts him in the middle of the Cardinals’ decision tree.

Houston has been linked to Nootbaar as the Astros look for outfield help, and that fit makes sense. He gives a contender a left-handed bat, on-base ability, corner outfield defense and control beyond this season. The Yankees have also been connected to the outfield market, and with injuries creating urgency, Nootbaar’s profile should draw attention there, too.

This is where the Cardinals need to be careful.

Nootbaar has value because he is more than a two-month piece. That means the return has to reflect that. A contender is not just renting him for August and September. It is also getting him for next season.

That should raise the ask.

At the same time, the Cardinals have to ask themselves what the outfield looks like if they keep him. Jordan Walker is part of the core. Joshua Báez is knocking on the door. Nathan Church and Victor Scott II are still part of the broader picture. There are only so many at-bats to go around.

If another club wants to overpay for Nootbaar, Bloom should listen closely.

If the offer is ordinary, keep him.

There is nothing wrong with having a useful outfielder under control for another year.

Then there is Burleson.

Alec Burleson may be the quietest of the four names, but he might be one of the more interesting deadline tests for Bloom.

Burleson can hit. He gives a club a left-handed bat, first base/DH value and enough offensive track record to draw calls. Teams looking for lineup balance should be interested. He is the kind of player who may not dominate deadline headlines but could fit several rosters.

The question is whether the Cardinals view him as part of the next good team.

That is not as easy as it sounds.

Burleson has real value, but his profile is bat-driven. If the bat is not producing damage, the defensive flexibility is limited. If the bat is producing, he can help a lineup. That makes him useful but also a player the Cardinals should be willing to discuss if another club values him highly.

This is where the front office has to be honest.

Not every good player is a core player.

Not every controllable player is untouchable.

Burleson should not be dumped. He should not be moved just to clear a roster spot. But if a team views him as a legitimate middle-of-the-order left-handed bat and is willing to pay accordingly, the Cardinals should explore it.

That is the difference between selling and panic-selling.

The Cardinals should be selling.

They should not be panicking.

The priority list should be simple.

Move Dustin May if the market produces a fair return.

Move Ryne Stanek if a contender wants bullpen help.

Listen on Nootbaar if the return reflects the extra year of control.

Listen on Burleson if the offer treats him like a real bat, not a spare part.

Do not force Herrera unless the return is too strong to ignore.

Protect the top of the system.

This is not the time to pretend the Cardinals are one deadline rental away from fixing everything. They are not. The second-half slide showed the roster still has too many holes, especially on the pitching side. The responsible play is to turn short-term pieces and selected surplus into future value.

But it also should not be a reckless teardown.

There is a young foundation here. Walker, Wetherholt, Masyn Winn, Herrera, Burleson, the catching pipeline, and the next wave of pitching prospects all matter in some form. The Cardinals should be reshaping the roster, not strip-mining it.

That is the line Bloom has to walk.

The Skubal trade makes that line even more important.

With the Dodgers landing the biggest arm on the board, the rest of the market gets squeezed. Peralta may be next. Once he moves, clubs that still need starting pitching will have fewer choices and less time.

That is good news for the Cardinals.

It puts Dustin May closer to the center of the pitching market than he was 24 hours ago.

The Cardinals do not have the ace. They do not have the biggest deadline chip. But they may have the type of starter teams turn to once the bigger names are gone.

That can still bring value.

And value is the entire point of this deadline.

For St. Louis, today’s report comes down to this:

May is the most likely to go.

Nootbaar is very much worth monitoring.

Herrera should require a massive return.

Burleson is a listen-only candidate unless someone gets aggressive.

The deadline is no longer approaching in theory. It is here. The market has started moving. The first domino has fallen.

Now the Cardinals need to make sure their pieces do not fall cheaply.

The Cardinal Chronicle, in association with Gateway Sports & MiLB Today
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