Who Needs MLB Money? I Don’t — How NIL Is Rewriting the Draft

The Cardinal Chronicle
Who Needs MLB Money? I Don’t — NIL Is Rewriting the Draft
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur

There was a time when being selected in the Major League Baseball Draft settled the matter.

A player heard his name called, accepted whatever signing bonus accompanied the selection and climbed aboard the first bus headed toward rookie ball. The accommodations were modest, the paycheck was smaller and the road to the major leagues was long, but professional baseball was offering something college baseball could not: money.

That is no longer the case.

A growing number of players can now look at a late-round selection, compare it with the NIL money and other financial benefits available in college, and politely tell Major League Baseball, “Thanks, but I’m good.”

The St. Louis Cardinals received a firsthand reminder following the 2026 MLB Draft.

St. Louis selected Texas A&M right-hander Clayton Freshcorn in the 19th round with the 564th overall pick. Two rounds before the Cardinals called his name, Freshcorn was coming off an All-American season in which he posted a 2.82 ERA, recorded 12 saves and struck out 56 batters while issuing only six walks in 54⅓ innings.

That is not the statistical résumé of a typical 19th-round lottery ticket.

Freshcorn nevertheless announced that he would pass on professional baseball and return to Texas A&M for his senior season in 2027.

The Cardinals then used their 20th-round selection on Oklahoma State outfielder Kollin Ritchie, another All-American who hit .326 with 31 home runs, 75 RBIs and a 1.266 OPS. Ritchie had already announced his intention to return to Oklahoma State shortly before St. Louis selected him with the 594th and final pick of its draft.

Neither player publicly based his decision upon a disclosed NIL figure, but the larger message is impossible to miss.

Being drafted no longer means a player has to sign.

College Baseball Has Become a Competing Employer

Before NIL, MLB teams held most of the leverage outside the early rounds.

A highly regarded high school player might have a college scholarship waiting, but there was little opportunity to make substantial money while attending school. A college junior could return for another season, but doing so meant risking injury, poor performance or another decline in his draft position without receiving meaningful compensation.

The professional offer did not have to be overwhelming. It simply had to be better than the alternative.

NIL changed the alternative.

Top college programs can now offer players access to NIL compensation, scholarships, housing, advanced facilities, strength programs, nutrition, medical care, national television exposure and competition against many of the best amateur players in the country.

In some cases, established college players are reportedly receiving NIL offers approaching $500,000.

Compare that with a late-round professional offer and the decision becomes far more complicated.

The romance of professional baseball remains powerful, but romance does not pay the rent. It does not replace a scholarship, cover the value of another year of education or guarantee that a player will ever advance beyond the lower minor leagues.

Players are no longer choosing between professional money and an unpaid college season. They are choosing between two competing financial and developmental opportunities.

That is an entirely different negotiation.

The Truth About the $150,000 Figure

There is also considerable confusion surrounding the signing rules for players selected after the 10th round.

The $150,000 figure is not a hard cap on what a player may receive.

Players selected in Rounds 11 through 20 can sign for as much as $150,000 without that amount counting against the club’s assigned bonus pool. A team may offer more, but every dollar above $150,000 is charged against its pool.

That is where NIL creates another problem for clubs.

If a 12th-round selection has a strong college offer, $150,000 may not be enough. To persuade him to sign, the team might have to offer $300,000, $500,000 or more.

That additional money must come from somewhere.

Teams generally create those savings by signing players selected during the first 10 rounds for less than their assigned slot values. A college senior with limited negotiating leverage might accept an underslot agreement, allowing the organization to redirect the savings toward a high school player or college underclassman selected later.

It is legal, strategic and common.

But NIL is driving up the price.

The late-round player who once had little bargaining power can now tell a club exactly what it will take to get him out of school. If the team will not meet that price, he can return to campus, enter the transfer portal, pursue a better NIL opportunity and try the draft again next year.

The club controls the draft pick.

The player increasingly controls the decision.

The Late-Round Lottery Ticket Is Disappearing

For years, teams used the later rounds to take calculated chances on talented high school players with strong college commitments.

A club might select a player in the 15th or 18th round and then attempt to persuade him to sign with an aggressive bonus. Sometimes it worked. Sometimes it did not. There was little risk in making the selection, and the potential reward was considerable.

Those opportunities are becoming harder to find.

Power-conference programs can offer immediate financial support, professional-level facilities and a prominent role to high school recruits who otherwise might have entered the minor leagues. Instead of spending several seasons playing before small crowds in the lower minors, a player can compete in packed SEC or Big 12 stadiums while building his brand and improving his draft position.

The Seattle Mariners offered one of the clearest examples in 2026, using 19 of their 20 selections on college players. Their only high school selection, 18th-round outfielder Dominic Santarelli, was not expected to sign because of his commitment to LSU.

Seattle did not suddenly stop believing in high school talent. The organization adjusted to the economic reality of trying to sign it.

High school players with significant college opportunities have become expensive. College underclassmen with eligibility remaining have become expensive. Even productive veterans who project as organizational depth can be expensive because their value to a college program may be greater than their immediate value to a major-league organization.

That last group may feel NIL’s greatest impact.

A first-round talent will still receive life-changing money from MLB. A top prospect selected in the first few rounds will generally sign because the professional offer remains difficult to refuse.

The real battleground begins when the draft reaches players who are stars in college but are viewed as role players, relievers or organizational depth by MLB clubs.

A veteran college slugger might be worth only a modest bonus to a professional organization that questions his position or bat speed. To a college program trying to reach Omaha, however, he might be worth several hundred thousand dollars.

One side sees a possible Double-A bench player.

The other sees 25 home runs and a chance to reach the College World Series.

Guess which side may be willing to pay more?

The Impact on the Minor Leagues

This changing market will eventually affect the quality and composition of minor-league rosters.

The lower minors have traditionally been filled with a mixture of premium prospects, raw high school players, developing college selections and older organizational players. Not all of them were expected to reach the majors, but they provided the competition and depth needed to operate a complete development system.

When productive college players remain in school rather than sign as middle- or late-round selections, some of that talent never reaches the lower minors — or arrives a year later and at an older age.

That does not mean the minor leagues will suddenly run out of players. Teams will continue signing college seniors, undrafted free agents and international prospects.

It does mean clubs may have to reconsider how they value the players who fill out their organizations.

A player cannot be dismissed as “organizational depth” during negotiations and then be expected to accept a bargain-basement offer simply because professional baseball called his name.

College programs have placed a price on that depth.

MLB must now decide whether it is willing to match it.

This Is Not the Players’ Fault

It would be easy to blame NIL or accuse players of putting money ahead of the dream.

That would also be unfair.

Major League Baseball is a multibillion-dollar industry. Its teams use every contractual advantage, bonus-pool rule and roster regulation available to control costs and maximize value.

Players are now doing the same thing.

A young man who can earn meaningful money, continue his education, play before large crowds and improve his draft position is not betraying baseball by returning to school. He is making a rational business decision.

MLB cannot celebrate capitalism when negotiating television contracts, sponsorship agreements and franchise values, then complain when amateur players finally develop a market of their own.

The players did not ruin the old draft model.

They simply gained enough leverage to stop accepting it.

A New Draft Strategy

The smartest organizations will adapt.

They will conduct more extensive signability work before making late-round selections. They will identify which players genuinely want to begin their professional careers and which ones are prepared to return to school unless offered substantial over-slot money.

Teams will continue saving bonus-pool money in the early rounds, but those savings will have to be larger and used more selectively.

The back of the draft may increasingly become the territory of college seniors, players without remaining eligibility and prospects who value an immediate professional opportunity more than another year on campus.

That may make late-round draft classes safer.

It may also make them less interesting.

The days of casually selecting a premium high school commitment in the 18th round and hoping a few hundred thousand dollars will change his mind are fading. So are the days when a productive college junior had to sign because there was no financial benefit to returning.

For the Cardinals, Freshcorn and Ritchie are not condemnations of the organization’s draft. Late-round selections have always carried signability risks, and the club knew both players could be difficult or impossible to sign.

They are, however, perfect illustrations of baseball’s new reality.

The Cardinals offered them a doorway into professional baseball.

Both players decided there was no immediate need to walk through it.

The MLB Draft still matters. The dream of reaching the major leagues still matters. Being selected will always be an honor.

But for the first time, many players can afford to say no.

And that has changed everything.

The Cardinal Chronicle, in association with Gateway Sports & MiLB Today
Preserving the Past, Promoting the Present, and Projecting the Future.

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