“Cardinals 2026 Preseason Outlook: A Transitional Year”

The Cardinals’ most realistic 2026 outcome is a season living in the 70s for wins — not because the franchise forgot how to play baseball, but because they’re straddling two timelines. The “Cardinal Way” has historically bought stability, but this roster feels like a blend of veterans who can steady the floor and young players who will endure growing pains.

Those growing pains don’t always show up in the box score. They show up in 0-for-4 nights with two strikeouts in a big spot, in misplayed routes, in bullpen roles stretched thin, and in the quiet August losses that don’t make headlines but do add up.

So the season becomes about one thing: do the kids move the needle fast enough to turn “respectable” into “dangerous”? If two or three young hitters become everyday positives and the rotation holds together, you can see a .500-type club. If the offense runs streaky and run prevention wobbles, fourth place becomes the ceiling.

Projection systems lean toward the latter.

PECOTA sees the Cardinals in the 66–69 win range, suggesting a last-place finish in the NL Central. ZiPS is more moderate, projecting roughly 76–86. Betting markets have settled near 70–71 wins, consistent with a rough season but not a total collapse.

Across the board, the models treat 2026 as a transitional year — rebuilding first, contending later.

Within the division, Milwaukee and Chicago project stronger on paper. Pittsburgh made meaningful offseason additions and could feature Rookie of the Year candidate Konner Griffin at shortstop. That leaves Cincinnati and St. Louis likely battling near the bottom of the Central standings.

My view is slightly more optimistic than some. I see a competitive but incomplete club — one that fights most nights, flashes promise, but ultimately absorbs the lessons of a transitional year.

Final call: 74–88 and fifth place in the NL Central.