Does Church Have a Prayer at Opening Day?

Does Church Have a Prayer at Opening Day?

Before we talk about injuries or roster math, let’s talk about what Nathan Church brings to the field.

Church can patrol all three outfield positions at a plus level. That’s not projection — that’s performance. His speed plays, and his instincts show up both in the gaps and on the bases. At times his reads can look unconventional, particularly in a corner, but the results speak clearly. In 2024, he led minor league outfielders in several advanced defensive metrics — a reflection of range, closing speed, and consistency. Add in a plus arm, and you begin to see the kind of profile every club covets in a fourth or fifth outfielder.

That skill set alone makes Church relevant in 2026. But roster opportunity has a way of accelerating timelines.

With Lars Nootbaar recovering from offseason surgery on both heels, there is at least the possibility his rehab extends into the regular season. If that happens, the Cardinals will need defensive stability and athletic range in the outfield — and Church fits that need cleanly.

Even if Nootbaar is active on Opening Day, the competition for the final outfield spots remains fluid. The organization gave Church an August 2025 call-up, promoting him roughly 90 days ahead of when Rule 5 protection would have required it. That time in St. Louis was not accidental. It was developmental investment. Exposure to major league speed and routine matters, and it should give him a legitimate leg up entering 2026.

There is no roster urgency, either. Church still has all three minor league option years remaining. If a veteran is added via trade or free agency and pushes him down the depth chart, the Cardinals are not forced into a decision. That flexibility works in the club’s favor.

Internally, the competition is present but unsettled. Bryan Torres is on the 40-man roster but have yet to appear in the majors. Joshua Baez could force the conversation later in the season if his bat continues to trend upward. As always, performance will determine staying power.

When an organization sees its 20th-ranked prospect project as a viable major league fourth or fifth outfielder — and that player happens to be a former 11th-round selection — development is working.

Does Church have a prayer at Opening Day?

He does. But it won’t come from circumstance alone. It will come from defense that travels, speed that impacts games, and a spring performance that removes doubt.

That’s how jobs are won.

 Photo Credit - Jim Rassol-Imagn Images