Mayday, Mayday, Mayday — Early Warning Signs for Dustin May

The Cardinal Chronicle
Mayday, Mayday, Mayday — Early Warning Signs for Dustin May
St. Louis, MO — By Ray Mileur

There’s an old baseball truth that still holds up: velocity will get you noticed… command will keep you employed.

Right now, Dustin May has the first part. The second part? That’s where the trouble lives.

Through his first two starts in a Cardinals uniform, the numbers don’t just raise eyebrows—they set off alarms. Seventeen hits allowed in just 7.1 innings isn’t bad luck. That’s a pattern. And when you dig into it, the pattern becomes pretty clear.

It starts with the sinker.

May’s sinker is coming in hot—97 mph, plenty of life—but it’s not going where it needs to go. Too many are leaking back over the heart of the plate, and big-league hitters don’t miss those. They’re sitting on it early in counts, and they’re squaring it up with authority. When opponents are hitting north of .450 against your primary pitch, that’s not a small leak—that’s a busted pipe.

The four-seam fastball hasn’t helped matters. Same story, different grip. High velocity, but too much plate. The home run against Detroit? That wasn’t a mystery—it was a fastball that caught more middle than May wanted.

Now here’s the part that keeps this from turning into a full-blown red alert.

The sweeper is legit.

Elite spin, over 3,100 rpm, and it’s doing exactly what it’s supposed to do—missing bats and generating strikeouts. It’s his best weapon right now, no question. The problem is, he’s not getting to use it the way he needs to. When you’re behind in counts because your fastball command isn’t there, hitters don’t have to chase your out pitch. They can sit dead red and force you to come to them.

And that’s exactly what they’re doing.

This is the classic “stuff vs. command” battle. The metrics say his stuff is elite—and it is. But Location+ doesn’t lie either. Right now, it’s well below league average, and at this level, that gap will get exposed every time out.

So what are we really looking at here?

Not a broken pitcher.

But a pitcher who’s walking a fine line.

The encouraging part is this: command issues can be fixed. This isn’t a velocity drop, it’s not an injury red flag, and it’s not a lack of swing-and-miss ability. It’s execution. It’s getting the ball off the middle and back to the edges—where that 97 mph sinker becomes a weapon again instead of batting practice.

But make no mistake…

The margin for error in the big leagues is razor thin.

And right now, Dustin May is living right in the middle of the plate.

That’s not where you want to make a living.

Mar 29, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Dustin May (3) pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images