Not All Wins Are Created Equal

The Cardinal Chronicle
Not All Wins Are Created Equal — A Look at Liberatore’s Opening Day
St. Louis, MO — By Ray Mileur

 
There are wins that look good in the box score and then there are outings that leave a pitching coach with more questions than answers.

Matthew Liberatore picked up the win on Opening Day against the Tampa Bay Rays, but a closer look at the outing tells a different story. This wasn’t a pitcher in full command of his arsenal  it was a pitcher working through trouble, leaning heavily on one pitch to escape innings that could have unraveled.

And at the center of it all was the fastball.

Liberatore’s four-seam fastball never established itself.

After sitting in the mid-94 mph range during Spring Training, his velocity dipped into the 91–92 mph range during key moments on Opening Day. Just as concerning as the drop in velocity was the lack of life. The pitch flattened out, stayed in the hitting zone too long, and failed to generate swings and misses.

Major league hitters don’t miss those pitches very often. When a fastball lacks both velocity and movement, it becomes predictable - and predictable pitches get hit.

Falling behind in counts changes everthing and the Cardinals had emphasized a “race to two strikes” approach for Liberatore entering the season. That plan never took hold on Opening Day

Instead, he consistently found himself behind in the count, forcing him into hitter-friendly situations. Rather than dictating at-bats with his expanded pitch mix, Liberatore was reacting and pitching from behind at the major league level is a difficult way to survive.

This also neutralized one of his key offseason additions, because in my opinion 
the splitter was designed to be a finishing pitch, particularly against right-handed hitters, never became a factor But because Liberatore struggled to get ahead, he rarely had the opportunity to use it in those situations.

A chase pitch only works when hitters are protecting the zone. In advantage counts, hitters can sit on fastballs and ignore anything that dips out of the strike zone.

Without early count leverage, the splitter remained more of a concept than a weapon.

The slider carried the load, everytime I checked the pitch selection off the scoreboard in tough situations, it seemed like he was throwing the slider. Liberatore relied heavily on it to generate swing-and-miss, and it was his most effective pitch throughout the outing. It helped him escape multiple jams and ultimately kept the game within reach.

But relying on one pitch to navigate through a lineup is not a long-term solution, especially on the second and third time through the batting order.

Over time, hitters adjust. They begin to anticipate it, forcing the pitcher back into the zone with less effective offerings.

The cutter continues to be a question mark for me, rather than serving as a bridge between his fastball and breaking pitches, it often behaved like a slower, straighter fastball lacking the late movement needed to miss barrels.

At this level, that kind of pitch tends to get squared up.

Liberatore entered 2026 with a new number, a new role and a new expanded arsenal, a deeper mix designed to keep hitters off balance and reduce his reliance on the fastball.

But Opening Day reinforced a familiar truth, no matter the number of pitches in your makeup everything is still built around the fastball.

If the fastball isn’t competitive, the rest of the arsenal becomes harder to use effectively. Pitch sequencing breaks down, hitters gain confidence, and the margin for error disappears.

My pld school take, a starting pitcher doesn’t need a dominant fastball  but he does need an honest one. Right now, Liberatore’s fastball isn’t there. The velocity is inconsistent, the command is unreliable, and it’s forcing him into situations where even his best secondary pitches can’t consistently bail him out.

To his credit, he battled. He worked through the traffic. He found a way to get the win, but if that fastball doesn’t firm up soon, those jams he escaped on Opening Day will come back and haunt him later in the season.

A win is a win, but not all wins are created equal.

 Photo - Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images