Scouting Report

Scouting Report 

Dustin May
RHP | Cardinals

Age: 27
B/T: R/R
Height/Weight: 6’6” / 180
Contract: One year, $12.5M | $20M mutual option (2027)

Overview

May has always been one of those arms evaluators circle in red ink. Big frame. Loose arm. Explosive movement. When healthy, he doesn’t just throw hard — he throws heavy. His fastball isn’t straight 98; it’s 97–99 with violent sink and late run. That’s how you get ground balls in the big leagues.

After splitting 2025 between the Dodgers and Red Sox, the Cardinals are betting on upside over certainty following the Sonny Gray trade. This is not a “safe innings” signing. This is a ceiling play.

Pitch Arsenal

Sinker (96–99 mph)
This is the money pitch. Extreme arm-side run. Generates ground balls at an elite clip when he commands it. If he keeps it down, it’s a nightmare for right-handed hitters.

Four-Seam Fastball (95–98 mph)
Used more up in the zone. Can miss bats but plays better when paired properly with his breaking stuff.

Sweeper / Slider (86–90 mph)
Sharp horizontal break. This is the swing-and-miss pitch. When it’s tight and consistent, he looks like a frontline arm.

Curveball (occasionally)
More of a show pitch. Not the breadwinner.

Changeup
Still developing. Key if he’s going to neutralize left-handed hitters consistently.

Strengths

• Elite movement profile
• Above-average ground ball rates
• Strikeout upside when slider is sharp
• Big-game experience (postseason pedigree with L.A.)

Concerns

Let’s be honest here — health is the headline. Tommy John surgery in 2021. Flexor tendon issues. Limited innings in multiple seasons. The Cardinals aren’t getting 200 innings. If they get 140 quality innings, that’s a win.

Command can also drift. When his release point wanders, the sinker flattens. When that happens, he’s hittable.

What to Watch in Jupiter

Is the velocity sitting 96–97 or touching 99?
Is the slider finishing below the zone or backing up?
How confident is he throwing to lefties?
Does he look free and loose — or careful?
Projection in St. Louis

Best case: A No. 2-type starter who misses bats and keeps the ball on the ground at Busch.

Realistic case: Mid-rotation arm with flashes of dominance.
Worst case: Injured list carousel.

This is a Cardinals-type gamble — not reckless, but not conservative either. If May holds up physically, this could look very sharp by July.

The Cardinals didn’t sign Dustin May to be safe. They signed him because when he’s right, he changes games. The question in 2026 won’t be talent. It will be durability.

Graphic Image - the Cardinal Chronicle