The 2026 Season on Paper
The 2026 Season on Paper
“A 10,000-Simulation Look at Wins, Risks, and the Road Ahead.”
Before a single pitch is thrown, the 2026 season has already been played 10,000 times on paper.
Using run-differential modeling, projected player development curves, aging trends, and bullpen stability factors, 10,000 simulated seasons were run to establish a realistic range of outcomes for the St. Louis Cardinals. The purpose was not to predict one precise finish, but to measure probability — the space between promise and proof.
Across those simulations, the median result settled at 81–81.
The most common win band fell between 78 and 84 victories. In roughly 15 percent of the simulations, St. Louis pushed into legitimate Wild Card contention. In approximately 10 percent, the club reached 88–90 wins — a scenario heavily dependent on health in the rotation and offensive growth from its young core.
This is not a roster built on established dominance. It is a roster built on development.
With JJ Wetherholt projected to step directly in the starting role at second base, Masyn Winn anchoring the middle infield, and the lineup relying on meaningful growth from Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker, the 2026 Cardinals enter as one of the more volatile clubs in the National League.
The offense projects to score approximately 710 runs over 162 games. That projection assumes moderate rookie production from Wetherholt, steady output from Alec Burleson, continued offensive progress from Ivan Herrera, and elite defensive value from Victor Scott II offsetting league-average offense at the bottom of the lineup.
The swing factor remains power consistency. If both Gorman and Walker deliver 25-plus home runs with improved on-base skills, run production climbs into the mid-750s. If one or both stagnate, the lineup risks becoming top-heavy and streak-dependent.
On the mound, the projected rotation of Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, and Richard Fitts profiles as competitive but not overpowering. Simulated run prevention lands between 730 and 750 runs allowed, placing increased importance on bullpen steadiness from Riley O’Brien in the closer role and JoJo Romero in late leverage situations.
The data suggests this is a hinge-year club.
Best-case scenario: 89–73, with internal growth accelerating faster than expected.
Median projection: 81–81, a season defined by stretches of promise and correction.
Floor scenario: 73–89, should injuries or stalled development take hold.
What the numbers ultimately show is simple: the margin between meaningful October baseball and a .500 campaign rests almost entirely on internal growth. Not free-agent additions. Not midseason trades. Development.
The 2026 Cardinals will go as far as their young core carries them.