The Hunter Dobbins Decision

The Cardinal Chronicle in association with Gateway Sports
Armchair GM: The Hunter Dobbins Decision
St. Louis, MO
By Ray Mileur

ST. LOUIS — If you’re sitting in the chair right now, this is one of those decisions that tells you whether you’re managing a roster… or reacting to one.

The Hunter Dobbins call is here.

And from this seat, it’s not complicated.

With Richard Fitts done for the year, the Cardinals just lost a key layer of upper-level depth. At the same time, a 17-games-in-17-days stretch is about to begin — the kind of run that exposes every weakness in a pitching staff.

Right now, that weakness is clear: the rotation isn’t consistently getting deep enough, and the bullpen is already feeling it.

That’s where Dobbins comes in.

He’s 26, healthy, stretched out, and coming off a rehab run in Memphis that says he’s ready for a full starter’s workload. The knee looks good. The innings are there. The results are solid. There’s nothing left to prove at Triple-A.

So if I’m running this club, I’m making the move now.

Activate Dobbins — and go to a six-man rotation immediately.

That’s the play.

It solves multiple problems at once. You get Dobbins into the mix without forcing a knee-jerk demotion. You give your current starters extra rest during a brutal stretch. And maybe most important, you take pressure off a bullpen that can’t keep covering four- and five-inning starts every night.

And let’s be honest about what Dobbins is.

He’s not an ace. He’s not being asked to be. What he is — and what this club needs — is a reliable back-end starter. A guy with a 95-98 mph fastball, a real slider that plays, enough secondary to navigate a lineup, and the ability to throw strikes and compete.

He showed that in Boston last year — 11 starts, 4.13 ERA over 61 innings. That’s not flashy. That’s useful. And right now, useful has real value in this rotation.

Because while there have been flashes, there hasn’t been enough consistency.

Michael McGreevy has been the steadiest. Matthew Liberatore has done his job. Andre Pallante has battled but continues to pitch with traffic. Dustin May has shown signs of turning a corner, but the overall line still needs to come down. Kyle Leahy has had mixed results, with stretches where the feel just isn’t there.

To their credit, several of those arms looked better against Houston. That’s where the hesitation comes from — you don’t want to pull the plug just as someone starts to figure it out.

Fair point.

But this isn’t about pulling the plug. It’s about adding a piece.

A six-man rotation lets you do exactly that. Nobody loses their spot today. Everybody gets breathing room. And you get real, major-league looks at Dobbins instead of guessing based on Memphis outings.

Then, when this stretch ends, you make the tougher call.

If Dobbins pitches like he’s capable of — and the track record says he can — then somebody moves. On paper, Pallante looks like the most vulnerable based on the traffic and strikeout profile, though May stays in that conversation if the recent improvement doesn’t hold. Pallante, in particular, could bring value in a bullpen role if that becomes the fit.

But that’s tomorrow’s decision.

Today’s decision is about putting your club in the best position to survive — and maybe even gain ground — over the next two and a half weeks.

And sitting on Dobbins doesn’t do that.

You didn’t acquire him to stash him. You didn’t rehab him to leave him in Memphis. You didn’t build him up to five-plus innings just to wait for the “perfect” moment.

This is the moment.

Good clubs don’t wait for problems to solve themselves. They anticipate them and move before the damage is done.

Activate Dobbins. Go to six starters. Protect your bullpen. Learn what you have.

From this chair, that’s the move.

The Cardinal Chronicle in association with Gateway Sports