The Verdict is In
The Machine’s Verdict: A 69-Win Season in Simulation
After 10,000 projected seasons suggested a hinge-year .500 club, it was time to turn the controls over to the machine.
Using current roster ratings (as of February 18, 2026), rated 100% after 184 downloads, a full 162-game season was simulated in MLB The Show 25 with injuries and transactions turned off. The goal was simple: allow the game engine to evaluate the roster strictly as constructed.
The results were sobering.
St. Louis finished 69–93, good for fifth place in the National League Central, 19 games behind the division-winning Cubs (88–74). The Cardinals scored just 599 runs and allowed 730, finishing with a –131 run differential.
Entering the simulation, the roster was rated 29th overall, including 29th in pitching and 27th in power. The engine’s skepticism was evident from Opening Day.
Offensively, there were bright spots. Alec Burleson delivered a breakout campaign, hitting .310 with 26 home runs and a .310/.383/.509 slash line, good for an .892 OPS. Masyn Winn supplied 20 home runs but hit just .218, illustrating the volatility that can accompany power growth without consistent contact.
Rookie JJ Wetherholt appeared in 141 games, batting .250 with 15 home runs, 61 RBI, and 14 stolen bases — respectable production, though not transformative.
On the mound, Dustin May led the club in wins with a11–12 record over 180 innings but posted a 4.60 ERA. Matthew Liberatore (3.84 ERA) was steady in stretches, while rookie Michael McGreevy (4.10 ERA) showed signs of development amid inconsistency.
The bullpen had one dominant presence. JoJo Romero recorded 40 saves with a 1.63 ERA, stabilizing late innings despite the club’s struggles. Beyond him, however, depth faltered. Zack Thompson (5.40 ERA), Kyle Leahy (4.98 ERA), and Andre Pallante (4.85 ERA) were unable to prevent sustained damage over the course of the season.
The simulation engine’s conclusion was clear: based strictly on current ratings and roster construction, this is a bottom-tier club.
The difference between projection and gameplay simulation is philosophical. The earlier 10,000-season model allowed for organic development and growth variance. The game engine evaluated current ability and weighted ratings accordingly.
In short, the math allowed for optimism.
The machine did not.
The 2026 Cardinals, at least in this simulation, were not a contender in waiting. They were a roster exposed.