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St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Riley O’Brien will miss the opening round of the World Baseball Classic after sustaining a mild calf strain, manager Oliver Marmol confirmed from camp in Florida.The injury is not considered serious, and O’Brien will remain in Cardinals camp while he recovers. If Team Korea advances beyond the first round, there remains a possibility he could join the club later in the tournament.For now, the focus is on getting him healthy and keeping his throwing program on schedule. With bullpen roles still taking shape this spring, the Cardinals will want O’Brien at full strength rather than pushing him prematurely in early March competition.Given his profile and the progress he showed last season, the organization’s priority is clear: durability first, availability second. Photo Credit - Riley O'Brien

O'Brien to Miss First Round WBC

<h3>In the Spotlight: RHP Matt Svanson</h3>There’s always one pitcher in camp who makes you pause mid-sentence and watch the bullpen session a little longer. This spring, that pitcher might be Matt Svanson.The right-hander offers the raw tools clubs covet in late-inning relievers: a fastball reaching 97 MPH and two distinct breaking pitches, giving him weapons against both right- and left-handed batters. The fastball has life, and the breaking ball can miss bats. When he’s ahead in the count, hitters rarely look comfortable.That’s the profile of a modern bullpen asset.Lindy’s Fantasy Sports projects for Svanson in 2026; 41 innings over 65 appearances with a 3-2 record and a 3.42 ERA. Those numbers suggest steady contribution, not just roster filler. If Svanson handles leverage situations and throws consistent strikes, that projection might even prove conservative.His 2025 performance established the foundation. A 4-0 record with a 1.94 ERA across 60.1 innings in 39 appearances reflects more than just good fortune—it points to command, poise, and the ability to navigate traffic.Bullpens are built on trust. Managers don’t hand the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning to arms they’re unsure of. But power stuff travels, and when velocity is paired with secondary pitches that can finish at-bats, roles expand.Every season, a reliever emerges from relative anonymity and becomes part of the backbone of a pitching staff. Svanson has the tools to make that climb.For now, he’s an arm worth watching.And in this game, sometimes that’s how it starts. Photo Credit - The Brown and White

In the Spotlight: RHP Matt Svanson

The Machine’s Verdict: A 69-Win Season in SimulationAfter 10,000 projected seasons suggested a hinge-year .500 club, it was time to turn the controls over to the machine.Using current roster ratings (as of February 18, 2026), rated 100% after 184 downloads, a full 162-game season was simulated in MLB The Show 25 with injuries and transactions turned off. The goal was simple: allow the game engine to evaluate the roster strictly as constructed.The results were sobering.St. Louis finished 69–93, good for fifth place in the National League Central, 19 games behind the division-winning Cubs (88–74). The Cardinals scored just 599 runs and allowed 730, finishing with a –131 run differential.Entering the simulation, the roster was rated 29th overall, including 29th in pitching and 27th in power. The engine’s skepticism was evident from Opening Day.Offensively, there were bright spots. Alec Burleson delivered a breakout campaign, hitting .310 with 26 home runs and a .310/.383/.509 slash line, good for an .892 OPS. Masyn Winn supplied 20 home runs but hit just .218, illustrating the volatility that can accompany power growth without consistent contact.Rookie JJ Wetherholt appeared in 141 games, batting .250 with 15 home runs, 61 RBI, and 14 stolen bases — respectable production, though not transformative.On the mound, Dustin May led the club in wins with a11–12 record over 180 innings but posted a 4.60 ERA. Matthew Liberatore (3.84 ERA) was steady in stretches, while rookie Michael McGreevy (4.10 ERA) showed signs of development amid inconsistency.The bullpen had one dominant presence. JoJo Romero recorded 40 saves with a 1.63 ERA, stabilizing late innings despite the club’s struggles. Beyond him, however, depth faltered. Zack Thompson (5.40 ERA), Kyle Leahy (4.98 ERA), and Andre Pallante (4.85 ERA) were unable to prevent sustained damage over the course of the season.The simulation engine’s conclusion was clear: based strictly on current ratings and roster construction, this is a bottom-tier club.The difference between projection and gameplay simulation is philosophical. The earlier 10,000-season model allowed for organic development and growth variance. The game engine evaluated current ability and weighted ratings accordingly.In short, the math allowed for optimism.The machine did not.The 2026 Cardinals, at least in this simulation, were not a contender in waiting. They were a roster exposed.

The Verdict is In

<h3>The 2026 Season on Paper</h3>“A 10,000-Simulation Look at Wins, Risks, and the Road Ahead.”Before a single pitch is thrown, the 2026 season has already been played 10,000 times on paper.Using run-differential modeling, projected player development curves, aging trends, and bullpen stability factors, 10,000 simulated seasons were run to establish a realistic range of outcomes for the St. Louis Cardinals. The purpose was not to predict one precise finish, but to measure probability — the space between promise and proof.Across those simulations, the median result settled at 81–81.The most common win band fell between 78 and 84 victories. In roughly 15 percent of the simulations, St. Louis pushed into legitimate Wild Card contention. In approximately 10 percent, the club reached 88–90 wins — a scenario heavily dependent on health in the rotation and offensive growth from its young core.This is not a roster built on established dominance. It is a roster built on development.With JJ Wetherholt projected to step directly in the starting role at second base, Masyn Winn anchoring the middle infield, and the lineup relying on meaningful growth from Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker, the 2026 Cardinals enter as one of the more volatile clubs in the National League.The offense projects to score approximately 710 runs over 162 games. That projection assumes moderate rookie production from Wetherholt, steady output from Alec Burleson, continued offensive progress from Ivan Herrera, and elite defensive value from Victor Scott II offsetting league-average offense at the bottom of the lineup.The swing factor remains power consistency. If both Gorman and Walker deliver 25-plus home runs with improved on-base skills, run production climbs into the mid-750s. If one or both stagnate, the lineup risks becoming top-heavy and streak-dependent.On the mound, the projected rotation of Matthew Liberatore, Dustin May, Michael McGreevy, Andre Pallante, and Richard Fitts profiles as competitive but not overpowering. Simulated run prevention lands between 730 and 750 runs allowed, placing increased importance on bullpen steadiness from Riley O’Brien in the closer role and JoJo Romero in late leverage situations.The data suggests this is a hinge-year club.Best-case scenario: 89–73, with internal growth accelerating faster than expected.Median projection: 81–81, a season defined by stretches of promise and correction.Floor scenario: 73–89, should injuries or stalled development take hold.What the numbers ultimately show is simple: the margin between meaningful October baseball and a .500 campaign rests almost entirely on internal growth. Not free-agent additions. Not midseason trades. Development.The 2026 Cardinals will go as far as their young core carries them.&nbsp;

The 2026 Season on Paper

On this date in 1982, the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres completed the final paperwork on a trade that would redefine the franchise.To settle the “player to be named later” portion of the December 10, 1981 deal:San Diego sent Al Olmsted to St. Louis. St. Louis sent Luis DeLeon to San Diego. Neither name would leave a lasting mark on the major league roster. But February 19 was the formal closing of the transaction that brought Ozzie Smith to St. Louis and sent Garry Templeton west to the San Diego Padres.At the time, it was far from a universally celebrated move.Templeton was a two-time All-Star and one of the National League’s most talented shortstops. He could hit. He could run. He was still only 25 years old. But friction with manager Whitey Herzog had become public and undeniable. The Cardinals were shifting direction.Herzog envisioned a different club — one built on speed, pitching, and defense. Busch Stadium’s turf rewarded range and punished mistakes. Run prevention was not a talking point. It was the blueprint.Smith arrived with a sterling defensive reputation and a light bat. Many questioned whether glove alone justified the cost.History answered quickly.In 1982, the Cardinals won the World Series. Over the next six seasons, they captured three National League pennants. Smith won 11 consecutive Gold Gloves in St. Louis and ultimately entered the Hall of Fame in 2002. More than that, he became the defensive standard by which the position was measured.The trade did more than exchange shortstops.It clarified an identity.February 19, 1982, will never be remembered for headlines. There were no parades. No ceremonies. Just final names entered on a ledger.But sometimes baseball history is sealed not by spectacle — but by a signature. Research Sources - HistoryofCardinals.com

The Wizard of Oz Traded

<h3>Does Church Have a Prayer at Opening Day?</h3>Before we talk about injuries or roster math, let’s talk about what Nathan Church brings to the field.Church can patrol all three outfield positions at a plus level. That’s not projection — that’s performance. His speed plays, and his instincts show up both in the gaps and on the bases. At times his reads can look unconventional, particularly in a corner, but the results speak clearly. In 2024, he led minor league outfielders in several advanced defensive metrics — a reflection of range, closing speed, and consistency. Add in a plus arm, and you begin to see the kind of profile every club covets in a fourth or fifth outfielder.That skill set alone makes Church relevant in 2026. But roster opportunity has a way of accelerating timelines.With Lars Nootbaar recovering from offseason surgery on both heels, there is at least the possibility his rehab extends into the regular season. If that happens, the Cardinals will need defensive stability and athletic range in the outfield — and Church fits that need cleanly.Even if Nootbaar is active on Opening Day, the competition for the final outfield spots remains fluid. The organization gave Church an August 2025 call-up, promoting him roughly 90 days ahead of when Rule 5 protection would have required it. That time in St. Louis was not accidental. It was developmental investment. Exposure to major league speed and routine matters, and it should give him a legitimate leg up entering 2026.There is no roster urgency, either. Church still has all three minor league option years remaining. If a veteran is added via trade or free agency and pushes him down the depth chart, the Cardinals are not forced into a decision. That flexibility works in the club’s favor.Internally, the competition is present but unsettled. Bryan Torres is on the 40-man roster but have yet to appear in the majors. Joshua Baez could force the conversation later in the season if his bat continues to trend upward. As always, performance will determine staying power.When an organization sees its 20th-ranked prospect project as a viable major league fourth or fifth outfielder — and that player happens to be a former 11th-round selection — development is working.Does Church have a prayer at Opening Day?He does. But it won’t come from circumstance alone. It will come from defense that travels, speed that impacts games, and a spring performance that removes doubt.That’s how jobs are won. &nbsp;Photo Credit - Jim Rassol-Imagn Images&nbsp;

Does Church Have a Prayer at Opening Day?

The Cardinal Chronicle 